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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| AstraZeneca | 3944.5 | 146.0 | 3.8 | -14.6 |
| easyJet | 1470 | 54.0 | 3.8 | -15.5 |
| TUI | 1037 | 37.0 | 3.7 | -14.4 |
| Berkeley Group | 2984 | 76.0 | 2.6 | -19.1 |
| Whitbread | 3900 | 98.0 | 2.6 | -11.4 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| 559.5 | -89.9 | -13.8 | 86.8 | |
| Glencore | 132.55 | -13.1 | -9.0 | 46.5 |
| Rio Tinto | 1964.5 | -169.0 | -7.9 | -0.8 |
| BHP Billiton | 793.3 | -51.4 | -6.1 | 4.4 |
| Fresnillo | 1039 | -64.0 | -5.8 | 46.8 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,114.8 | -10.9 | -0.18 | -2.0 |
| UK | 16,687.0 | 38.3 | 0.23 | -4.3 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,322.8 | 21.6 | 0.50 | -6.8 |
| DE DAX 30 | 9,980.5 | 110.5 | 1.12 | -7.1 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,706.0 | -34.8 | -0.20 | 1.6 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,750.2 | 14.1 | 0.30 | -5.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,058.7 | 1.6 | 0.08 | 0.7 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 16,553.3 | 337.3 | 2.08 | -13.0 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 50 | 20,114.8 | -42.1 | -0.21 | -8.2 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,338.6 | 17.9 | 0.34 | 0.8 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 43.39 | -0.11 | -0.25 | 17.1 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 43.78 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 16.5 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1266.95 | 2.85 | 0.23 | 19.5 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.05 | 0.05 | 0.31 | 23.3 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.44 | – | -0.05 | -2.2 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.14 | – | -0.03 | 4.8 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.27 | – | -0.02 | -6.7 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 called to open +30pts at 6145, with an overnight bounce from 6105 delivering a bullish double-bottom pattern rally to 6145. With the bounce handing us a higher low from Friday’s base, Bulls are hopeful of this being a reversal from near 2-month lows and that the overnight rally has legs to test mid-April’s trend of falling highs at 6200. The Bearish contingent is watchful of any signs of weakness that could usher us back to trouble Friday’s lows. Watch levels: Bullish 6155, Bearish 6125.
Calls for a positive open come after a positive session in Asia thanks to better Chinese inflation data which, albeit unchanged for Consumer Inflation in April, showed an easing in Producer Price deflation which has calmed some of the concerns we saw yesterday after the weekend’s weak China Trade data. commodities off their lows but still under pressure from a dollar holding near recent rebound highs and drivers of recent raw material gains unwind (speculation, misplaced growth hopes).
Japan’s Nikkei outperforming as exporters names benefit from persistent dollar strength which has sent the domestic Yen currency to its weakest levels for May. Chinese bourses regained poise while Australia’s ASX is advancing on a weaker Aussie dollar (2-month lows vs USD) and respite for commodity and energy prices.
US indices were mixed yesterday with indices that did post gains seeing upside capped by declines in the commodities space - evidently the rally in basic materials is now largely being put down to speculation in the Chinese market. The Fed’s Kashkari said he thought US policy is ‘about right’ and that a June rate hike is possible. Well, he has to say that doesn’t he?
Crude prices sold off hard yesterday and are off their lows this morning with volumes coming off ahead of this week’s US stockpile data (API today, EIA tomorrow), which follows last week’s bigger than expected build. This is a concern for oil traders who fear another sharp build in inventories. Canadian wildfires continue to rage and, while still an issue, should at least be a temporary one.as Oil prices dropped back below $44 as a Saudi minister change trump Canadian wildfire disruption.
Gold suffered yesterday on US Dollar strength with the Dollar Basket (DX) index making a break above Dec 2016 falling highs. Note also a 3-month bullish momentum divergence on the index that could signal an imminent reversal of trend (and attract more bullish speculators), which would put more pressure on Gold.
In focus today will be digestion of surprise Chinese inflation data and how its sits with the weekend’s weak trade numbers. After weak French Industrial Production this morning (at odds with the Factory Orders rebound we saw yesterday) the French and Italian figures may garner more focus than usual. Note the Fed’s Dudley speaking just after the European open, which could move the dollar. In the afternoon, US Small Business Optimism seen up a touch in April, US Wholesale Sales and inventories rebounding and US JOLTS Job Openings flat.
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