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Morning Report - 28 April 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American 696.9 29.7 4.5 132.7
Worldpay 269.4 11.1 4.3 -12.3
International Consolidated Airlines 555 19.5 3.6 -9.1
easyJet 1513 52.0 3.6 -13.1
Centrica 240.1 7.9 3.4 10.1
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Tesco 174.8 -8.7 -4.7 16.9
Prudential 1385 -24.5 -1.7 -9.5
Sky 953 -12.5 -1.3 -14.3
Legal & General 237.7 -3.0 -1.3 -11.2
Standard Chartered 565 -6.4 -1.1 0.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,319.9 35.4 0.56 1.2
UK 17,083.7 138.2 0.82 -2.0
FR CAC 40 4,559.4 26.2 0.58 -1.7
DE DAX 30 10,299.8 40.2 0.39 -4.1
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,041.5 51.3 0.28 3.5
US Nasdaq Composite 4,863.1 -25.1 -0.51 -2.9
US S&P 500 2,095.2 3.5 0.16 2.5
JP Nikkei 225 16,679.1 -611.4 -3.54 -12.4
HK Hang Seng Index 50 21,416.2 54.6 0.26 -2.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,222.2 34.5 0.66 -1.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 45.00 0.80 1.81 21.4
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 46.85 0.75 1.63 24.6
Gold ($/oz) 1251.15 3.85 0.31 18.0
Silver ($/oz) 17.27 0.00 0.01 24.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.45 0.04 -1.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.13 0.03 4.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.28 0 -5.4
UK 100 Index called to open -35pts at 6285

UK 100 Index: 1-month chart

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -35pts at 6285, back below the recent 6300 bugbear level after a sharp overnight sell-off (this time blame the BoJ) from 3-day highs 6340. This potentially puts us back within the confines of the sideways channel from earlier in the week, but in the context of the February uptrend could represent continued consolidation after the 17% rally. April uptrend still safe so long as 6250 support holds. Watch levels: Bullish 6305, Bearish 6245.

Negative opening calls are courtesy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) disappointing markets by refraining from any additional monetary policy easing which sent the Yen north and saw Nikkei equities plunge 3.5%. This despite fresh deflationary data and the central bank cutting its growth targets. The BoJ's overnight decision undid a positive response to the US Fed’s dovish update yesterday evening, with the US central bank's tempering of concerns regarding external risks being offset by mixed US data to keep us guessing about the timing of the next US rate hike.

Asian equities mixed with Japan’s Nikkei the clear underperformer. Despite weak Japanese inflation data, there was some good news via improvements in unemployment, retail sales and industrial production which may be helping regional sentiment hold up, even if Japan remains in trouble in terms of persistently absent growth and inflation.

Australia’s ASX positive despite AUD strength, with BoJ-inspired Yen strength dealing a welcome blow to the US dollar, to the benefit of the commodities space - metals and miners - as well as an oil price resilience around recent recovery highs. Chinese stocks still weighed by tech sector weakness even if social media giant Facebook managed to buck a weak sector results season trend by beating expectations.

No rate hike from the US Fed was either expected or delivered yesterday evening, although the hitherto standard commentary about ‘risks’ was absent, indicating a tentative upgrade to the Fed’s assessment of the global economic situation. This left markets pondering the possibility that June might still be on the table, although an unfortunate slowing in the US economy will have served to offset positivity elsewhere.

Not much in the way of an equity market reaction - a mixed close on Wall Street - while the USD saw some volatility and is, in fact, very much on the back foot this morning as the Dollar Basket (DX) falls through the floor of its Apr rising channel to test that uptrend.

US corporate results saw Facebook (FB)’s quarterly profits triple on advertising growth, while payments processor Paypal (PYPL) also reported strong Q1 earnings. These announcements came as a welcome reprieve from other silicon valley names that have been struggling of late (like Twitter).

Dollar weakness is helping commodities with Gold having broken out above $1250 overnight - with equity markets called a tad lower this morning and broad USD weakness continuing, it’s probable it’ll hold those gains as the day passes, but note momentum failing to match gold’s new highs on the hourly chart.

Crude oil prices are STILL supported yet uptrends are under threat from diverging technicals through April. Brent’s hourly RSI is heading towards rising lows that coincide with its zero line, such that a test and break below will be sought by bears as a sell opportunity. Oh, and do we hear more chat about rising US supply? Yes, we do. Note, however, traders are still flitting between bullishness on declining production and bearishness on growing inventories which is likely to make things choppy in the near term.

In focus today will be the fallout from the Fed and BoJ updates and the ramifications for global monetary policy outlook. Data-wise, listen out for German unemployment  (no change expected) as well as Eurozone Business Confidence readings (minor improvements forecast). German Inflation may however show a drop back to deflation in April, reminding us about Eurozone fragility, while US GDP is likely to have slowed markedly and a good reason for the Fed to hold off from a rate hike to avoid any worsening of the situation. US Results today from Amazon, Colgate, Dow Chemical, Ford, and global economic barometer UPS.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Airbus Group says A350 delivery target unchanged
  • Weir says expects first – half profits to exceed expectations
  • Lloyds posts profit in line with hopes amid slowdown in UK economy
  • Tullow Oil cuts deeper as banks agree to amend loan terms
  • Taylor Wimpey says not impacted by Brexit uncertainty yet
  • Oxford Biomedica FY gross income up 28 pct
  • Wood Group wins $500 mln contract in Azerbaijan
  • UK house price growth cools after land tax changes – Nationwide
  • Kaz Minerals says to achieve our full year copper production target
  • Galliford Try extends Urban Vision partnership, wins contracts
  • Anglo American agrees $1.5 bln sale of niobium and phosphates units
  • Solid U.S. trading boosts ad group WPP in Q1
  • Schroders assets hit record in Q1, buoyed by institutional inflows
  • Aggreko maintains FY guidance after in line Q1
  • Bank of Ireland capital steady at 11.2 pct despite pension deficit rise
  • Lloyds pays 790 million stg to buy back bonds
  • Tullow says production from Jubilee field to resume in next days
  • TUI sells Hotelbeds unit for $1.35 bln
  • Crude oil prices take a breather after hitting 2016 highs

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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