Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -45pts at 6155, back at the midpoint of its recent 6100-6200 consolidation range following the sharp 13% February recovery bounce. Bulls still left wanting for that proper breakout beyond 6200 to extend the rally. Bears still focused on the struggle at 6200, making the most of any opportunity to sell the highs in the hope of a breakdown and more extended retrace. Watch levels: Bullish 6165, Bearish 6140.

The negative opening call comes as global markets move into the Easter holiday long weekend on a more cautious note. Asian bourses have taken a negative lead from Wall Street as a stronger USD following some hawkish Fed commentary weighs on the dollar-denominated commodities space, notably oil which also got a hit from ever rising US Crude inventories adding to global supply glut concerns.

Japan’s Nikkei hindered by commodity plays under pressure from the USD bounce and additional pressure from a profits warning at trading house Mitsui. A weaker Yen is failing to provide the normal lift for exporters. While Australia’s ASX is also on the back foot with weaker mining shares, note banks also hurting from the negative read-across related to risks of rising bad debts.

Chinese stocks also in the red despite the PBOC fixing the renminbi at its lowest in 2 months, inspiring hopes that it is being proactive rather than reactive in terms of intervention, possibly in preparation for any surprise Fed rate hike before the summer. Note the PBoC governor speaking this morning.

In focus today we have UK Retail Sales seen weak in Feb, with a similar story expected for US Durable Goods in the afternoon. While the latter may result in some welcome USD weakness to help markets end the week on a more positive note, it could easily be offset by improvement in US PMI Services and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index as well as additional hawkish chat from the Fed’s Bullard.

Note China’s PBOC governor Zhou speaking mid-morning. It’ll be very interesting to see whether the US Baker Hughes Rig Count  shows continued slowing in declines, suggesting the US production slowdown on the wane and more operators staying, even returning, now that oil prices have bounced.

Brent and US Light Crude are now well off their best levels of $42 as a stronger USD hinders commodities in general, although continued swelling of US crude stocks made matters worse and scepticism about an OPEC-led production freeze grows. Note US Crude back below $39.5 and Brent testing $40, putting the long-term downtrends back in play.

Gold has posted a fresh March low having broken below $1225 to test $1215 as USD strength outweighs safe haven demand and takes the yellow metal further from its recent recovery highs of $1285. Next support around $1200.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

• Next FY Net Profit Rises, Sees Challenging 2016
• SSE Raises FY Adjusted Earnings Per Share Guidance
• Immedia says BT Group renews mobile streaming contract
• McColl's appoints Jonathan Miller as CEO
• Russia's Polymetal says gold, silver ore reserves -4% in 2015
• Entertainment One buys 65%stake in Renegade Entertainment
• Fastjet says it intends to provide a formal response to easyGroup in due course
• Renishaw Unlikely to Achieve Previously Anticipated Trading Levels
• Galliford Try Secures 2 Construction Contracts in London
• Diploma Sees 1H Revenue Ahead, Helped by Acquisitions
• Balfour Beatty Wins £170M Extension to London Underground Partnership
• QinetiQ Group On Course to Deliver FY16 Expectations
• Petra Diamonds 32.33ct Exceptional Pink Diamond Sale