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Morning Report - 11 March 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Intu Properties PLC 299.8 4.3 1.5 -5.5
Aviva PLC 465.8 6.2 1.4 -9.7
Randgold Resources Ltd 6360 70.0 1.1 53.5
Shire PLC 3785 40.0 1.1 -19.4
Schroders PLC 2699 14.0 0.5 -9.3
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Direct Line Insurance Group PLC 358.6 -36.3 -9.2 -12.0
Ashtead Group PLC 785 -67.5 -7.9 -29.9
Anglo American PLC 502.8 -27.5 -5.2 67.9
BHP Billiton PLC 789.9 -41.3 -5.0 3.9
Barclays PLC 159.9 -8.3 -4.9 -27.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,036.7 -109.6 -1.78 -3.3
UK 16,385.2 -206.4 -1.24 -6.0
FR CAC 40 4,350.4 -75.3 -1.70 -6.2
DE DAX 30 9,498.2 -224.9 -2.31 -11.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,995.3 -5.0 -0.03 -2.5
US Nasdaq Composite 4,662.2 -12.2 -0.26 -6.9
US S&P 500 1,989.6 0.3 0.02 -2.7
JP Nikkei 225 16,938.9 86.6 0.51 -11.0
HK Hang Seng Index 48 20,168.4 183.9 0.92 -8.0
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,166.4 16.3 0.32 -2.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) 38.70 1.45 3.88 4.4
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 40.79 1.06 2.67 8.5
Gold ($/oz) 1270.75 -1.15 -0.09 19.8
Silver ($/oz) 15.60 -0.01 -0.05 12.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.43 -0.07 -3.1
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.12 -0.04 2.9
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.28 -0.04 -5.8
UK 100 Index called to open -85pts at 6120

UK 100 Index - 1 week chart

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +85pts at 6120, having rebounded from a near revisit of the 6000 level last traded on 25 Feb. The regain of 6100 overnight is positive in terms of getting back within the recent consolidation channel, offering hope that yesterday’s market volatility (all asset classes) was a hissy-fit blip and that 6200 can be seen again. Watch levels: Bullish 6160, Bearish 6090.

The positive opening call comes as investors digest what was a mammoth tasting menu-like consensus-beating monetary policy update from ECB president Draghi. He threw pretty much everything he could get his hands on at investors (QE boost, more rate cuts than expected, free money to banks who lend more). His aim was clearly to appease markets following his December disappointment.

While markets had a tantrum after Draghi’s comment about ‘not seeing rates going further into negative territory’ (this undid pretty much all of the initially positive reaction) we still see yesterday’s announcement as net positive with potential for more QE and the TLTRO refinancing proposition offsetting negative rates to some extent and having genuine potential to boost Eurozone growth and inflation. The overnight recovery in market sentiment suggests markets may be coming round to a similar view, the ugly indigestion finally subsiding.

Overnight, Asian socks positive with a weaker Yen helping the Nikkei, and commodity prices off their lows thanks to a USD retreating from yesterday’s spike, offering help to the Australian ASX. Note Chinese stocks joining the party despite the PBOC fixing the renminbi higher.

US markets followed European peers on their ECB journey with futures indicating a positive open later today. This after markets calmed down somewhat, remembering that Draghi did actually deliver more than they expected while realising that not seeing any reason currently to take rates more negative doesn’t actually mean ‘that’s it.

In focus today, will be the continued fallout from the ECB update and what peers are likely to do next week (BoJ, BoE, Fed) although with inflation data so key the US Import Price data will be watched closely along with the US Baker Hughes Rig count after the European close. Another drop to support lower US oil output to buoy an oil price well off its lows?

Crude oil is again defying the fundamentals, with a March OPEC/non-OPEC/whoever meeting now seen as unlikely to produce the much hoped for production freeze given Iran’s commitment to expand output. The main driver therefore looks to be the USD which weakened on the back of eventual EUR strength yesterday.

Gold made new 2016 highs $1284, again on ECB action, briefly surpassing the $1278 level which is still proving a hurdle to the upside. The yellow metal is still supported by mid-Feb rising lows while technicals indicate potential for a pullback today as markets digest what was actually a positive set of measures by the ECB.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Just Retirement's first – half profit rises
  • UK property developer Watkin Jones to list on London's AIM

  • London copper rallies, but faces 1st weekly fall in four as China jitters linger

  • Wealth management firm Harwood Wealth to float on London's AIM

  • UK pubs group JD Wetherspoon's first – half profit dips 3.9%

  • Partnership Assurance says FY total oper profit of £40mn

  • Computacenter says FY adjusted pretax profit up 7.2%

  • Petrofac says signs 5 – yr contract to support Anasuria

  • Global Ports makes net loss of $33.7mn in 2015 vs loss of $197.3mn in 2014

  • Safestore agrees option to acquire rival UK self – storage firm

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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