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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Prudential | 1365 | 38.5 | 2.9 | -10.8 |
| Glencore | 143.25 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 58.3 |
| SSE | 1468 | 33.0 | 2.3 | -3.9 |
| Berkeley Group | 3000 | 62.0 | 2.1 | -18.7 |
| Taylor Wimpey | 176.3 | 3.1 | 1.8 | -13.2 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Burberry | 1364 | -98.0 | -6.7 | 14.1 |
| Standard Chartered | 469.5 | -11.0 | -2.3 | -16.7 |
| Barclays | 168.2 | -3.8 | -2.2 | -23.2 |
| Aberdeen Asset Management | 270.5 | -5.2 | -1.9 | -6.5 |
| St James’s Place | 865 | -15.0 | -1.7 | -14.2 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,146.3 | 20.9 | 0.34 | -1.5 |
| UK | 16,591.6 | -62.4 | -0.37 | -4.8 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,425.7 | 21.6 | 0.49 | -4.6 |
| DE DAX 30 | 9,723.1 | 30.3 | 0.31 | -9.5 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,000.3 | 36.3 | 0.21 | -2.4 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,674.4 | 25.6 | 0.55 | -6.7 |
| US S&P 500 | 1,989.3 | 10.0 | 0.51 | -2.7 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 16,852.4 | 226.3 | 1.36 | -11.5 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 20,016.4 | 20.2 | 0.10 | -8.7 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,150.1 | -7.1 | -0.14 | -2.8 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas Int. ($/barrel) | 38.10 | 0.08 | 0.2 | 2.8 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 40.73 | -0.17 | -0.42 | 8.3 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1246.65 | -7.75 | -0.62 | 17.6 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 15.25 | -0.06 | -0.41 | 10.3 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.42 | – | -0.04 | -3.6 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.10 | – | -0.05 | 1.1 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.29 | – | 0.02 | -4.7 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open flat at 6145 (ex-div impact -6pts), with the index having moved into a symmetrical triangle continuation pattern (rising lows, falling highs) within March’s existing sideways 6100-6200 consolidation channel. This offers potential for a break to the upside, towards 6400, allowing for continuation of the uptrend from mid-February. Watch levels: Bullish 6170, Bearish 6130.
The flat opening call comes as investors hold their breath in the run-up to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest policy update from which more stimulus is hotly awaited to counter deflationary pressures. While deposit rates are expected to go even further into negative territory, President Mario Draghi is also forecast to deliver the boost to QE he shied away from in December and has hinted about since January.
Of interest overnight was Chinese Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data improving to a respectable 2.3% annually and yet failing to dent global risk appetite with still very deflationary Producer Price Inflation (PPI; -4,9%) showing economic support is still very much required to boost growth. A surprise interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also adds to the global theme of policy easing, with it warning about the effects of a slowing China.
Asian stocks mixed after a positive US close, with Japan's Nikkei outperforming thanks to a welcome weakening in the Yen (JPY) while Chinese equities fell despite the People’s Bank of China PBOC fixing the renminbi lower for a second successive day. Australia's ASX is just in the red as commodity prices ease.
US markets, like European peers, managed a close just above the waterline yesterday, held up by oil price strength following what should have been bearish data (US crude inventories rising again…, but gasoline stocks down again). A clear quiet seems to be pervading equity markets this morning ahead of the ECB press conference, with the US likely watching closely to gauge the extent to which Eurozone and US monetary policy is diverging. All quiet on the Fed front.
In focus today, all data will take a back seat as markets await the ECB’s latest policy update - more stimulus required should Draghi wish not to disappoint markets.
Crude oil is again off yesterday’s highs after prices rallied in the knowledge that global supply continues to grow (!). We’re not sure what’s more ridiculous, that or all the talk about OPEC/non-OPEC meetings to discuss production cuts! Interestingly though, both Brent and WTI have met resistance in the vicinity of $40 (Brent just above, WTI just below), which is roughly where US shale has threatened to crack on with fracking.
Gold has sold off overnight, breaking below March rising lows and steered by 2 day falling highs as selling pressure kicks in above $1250. Apart from technical drivers, we may well be seeing a more risk-on attitude ahead of what’s widely expected to be more negative ECB rates, while expanded Eurozone QE would really get markets going. Note though that Gold’s losses haven’t yet translated into equity market gains. Perhaps more importantly, the market is a fickle being. Be prepared for a tantrum if Draghi doesn’t deliver the goods.
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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