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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Sports Direct International PLC | 422 | 24.2 | 6.1 | -26.9 |
| Royal Dutch Shell PLC | 1388 | 69.5 | 5.3 | -10.1 |
| BG Group PLC | 980.2 | 47.5 | 5.1 | -0.5 |
| BT Group PLC | 487.25 | 21.6 | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| Dixons Carphone PLC | 464.9 | 20.5 | 4.6 | -7.0 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Anglo American PLC | 226.7 | -21.3 | -8.6 | -24.3 |
| Glencore PLC | 78.58 | -3.7 | -4.5 | -13.2 |
| Pearson PLC | 757.5 | -14.5 | -1.9 | 2.9 |
| Rio Tinto PLC | 1653.5 | -18.5 | -1.1 | -16.5 |
| Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC | 262.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 | -13.2 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 5,900.0 | 126.2 | 2.19 | -5.5 |
| UK | 16,128.0 | 294.4 | 1.86 | -7.5 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,336.7 | 130.3 | 3.10 | -6.5 |
| DE DAX 30 | 9,764.9 | 190.7 | 1.99 | -9.1 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 16,093.5 | 210.8 | 1.33 | -7.6 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,591.2 | 119.1 | 2.66 | -8.3 |
| US S&P 500 | 1,906.9 | 37.9 | 2.03 | -6.7 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 17,110.9 | 152.4 | 0.90 | -10.1 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 19,374.2 | 293.7 | 1.54 | -11.6 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,006.6 | 90.6 | 1.84 | -5.5 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, West Texas ($/barrel) | 32.47 | 0.88 | 2.77 | -12.4 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 32.47 | 1.11 | 3.54 | -13.7 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1101.15 | 2.95 | 0.27 | 3.8 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 14.11 | 0.09 | 0.66 | 2.1 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.43 | – | 0.26 | -2.9 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.08 | – | 0.15 | -0.5 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.32 | – | 0.12 | -2.5 |
Click graph to enlarge
UK 100 Index called to open +30pts at 5930 with last week’s rebound from bear market territory extending to 5950 overnight. Having broken beyond 2016’s trend of falling highs and last Tuesday’s 5900 highs the bulls are optimistic of a genuine reversal. Whilst a 350pt bounce so far is impressive, however, watch for potential fatigue around 6000. Bullish 5975, Bearish 5880.
The positive opening call comes as Asian stocks extend last week’s global rebound on the assumption that central bank largesse, either via dovish rhetoric (Fed) or more action (ECB, BoJ), will once again come to the rescue of recently dented risk appetite and that macro data isn’t as bad as is being made out. The price of a barrel of oil holding above $32 is also helping after its best 2-day rally in 7 years (9%) as markets reverse bearish bets.
Asian equities posting gains of up to 2%, with Japan’s Nikkei helped by materials, industrials and of course a weaker JPY as risk appetite sends safehaven seeking back out of favour. Australia’s ASX buoyed by a resurgent energy sector as the price of oil recovers and despite slowing business sentiment readings . Stocks in China supported by a government pledge to help cut coal and steel overcapacity. Note depressed emerging markets also helped by the general return of more bullish appetite.
US markets had their first positive week in four as the oil price recovered back above $30 (from multi-year lows) and emerging market concerns turned into hopes that further tightening by the Fed will be put on pause. (oh, and just possibly a whole lot of short covering!).
In focus today, German IFO Business Surveys are seen almost unchanged in January while the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity is seen improving. Note potential for US trading to be quiet this afternoon on account of the wintry conditions and extreme snow which hit the eastern seaboard this weekend.
Corporate-wise, note M&A still plentiful with Liberty Global (which had left the door ajar for a deal with Vodafone) has confirmed it is to buy Cable & Wireless Communications for 67-69p/share, in an all share deal. while stateside we have industrial Johnson Controls discussing a merger with Tyco.
Crude prices have given up some of their weekend gains already with Brent and WTI dropping out of bearish rising wedges as technicals come back from overbought territory, having been there all weekend. Again, there’s nothing new fundamentally to make us think a strong recovery is on the cards.
Gold has held steady in the face of recent market turmoil - with the latest risk-on moves failing to dent the yellow metal much. It’s still in an uptrend from late-Dec lows having broken out above 20 Jan falling highs on rising momentum. Look to Wednesday’s Fed meeting for its impact on USD strength (no change to US rates expected, but the outlook is arguably even more important).
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research