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Morning Report - 14 January 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
BP PLC 335.85 12.8 4.0 -5.1
Sports Direct International PLC 427.8 15.8 3.8 -25.9
Babcock International Group PLC 991 36.5 3.8 -2.5
Shire PLC 4269 155.0 3.8 -9.1
Capita PLC 1191 25.0 2.1 -1.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Merlin Entertainments PLC 429.8 -11.9 -2.7 -5.6
Lloyds Banking Group PLC 67.8 -1.5 -2.2 -7.2
Provident Financial PLC 3160 -69.0 -2.1 -6.2
Sky PLC 1083 -20.0 -1.8 -2.6
easyJet PLC 1690 -30.0 -1.7 -2.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 5,961.0 31.7 0.54 -4.5
UK 16,695.8 7.9 0.05 -4.2
FR CAC 40 4,391.9 13.2 0.30 -5.3
DE DAX 30 9,961.0 -24.5 -0.25 -7.3
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,151.5 -364.8 -2.21 -7.3
US Nasdaq Composite 4,526.1 -159.9 -3.41 -9.6
US S&P 500 1,890.3 -48.4 -2.50 -7.5
JP Nikkei 225 17,241.0 -474.7 -2.68 -9.4
HK Hang Seng Index 48 19,868.3 -66.5 -0.33 -9.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 4,909.4 -78.1 -1.57 -7.3
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas ($/barrel) 34.83 0.07 0.67 -16.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 30.41 -0.21 -0.69 -19.1
Gold ($/oz) 1090.35 -4.65 -0.42 2.8
Silver ($/oz) 14.07 -0.07 -0.51 1.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.441 0.02 -2.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.087 -0.14 0.1
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.326 0.15 -2.3
UK 100 Index called to open -75pts at 5885

UK 100 Index - 1 Week chart

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -75pts at 5885 after yesterday’s sell-off went as far as to re-test recent 5835 lows and 4yr rising support. The sell-off stifles the recent bounce and recovery and keeps us towards the bottom end of the dominant long-term downtrend from last year. However, we are off our worst overnight levels and a third bounce reinforces support. Watch levels: Bullish 5905, Bearish 5830.

The negative opening call comes after another late sell-off and heavy stateside losses driven by continued oil price volatility which sapped sentiment while attacks in Jakarta have added to the fray overnight to take Asian markets back to 3yr lows. Another test of $30/barrel by oil, this time by both Brent and WTI, has added to Chinese and global growth anxiety, and thus demand for commodities, maintaining the historically tough start to 2016 for global markets.

Asian markets in the red with Japan’s Nikkei hindered by renewed safehaven seeking in the JPY at the expense of exporters. Australia's ASX held back anew by weak raw materials space as Copper and Iron prices founder at lows, even if safehaven precious metals Gold and Silver get a fillip from general market worries. Chinese stocks fluctuating, but largely in the green, out of brief bear market territory,  helped by higher Yaun fix, although uncertainty rife about overvalued equities.

After a brief respite this week, US bourses resumed their southerly stroll yesterday to close at their worst levels in more than 3 months and enter correction territory, this after crude oil sold off in the afternoon. Furthermore, traders are back eyeing emerging market turmoil as a signal to take risk off the table while a mixed (suitably beige, to be honest) Beige Book is adding braking pressure to the pace of further Fed tightening.

In focus today we have German GDP seen improving slightly. The Bank of England policy decision is seen unchanged, although as always the minutes will be scrutinised for signals about the first post-crisis rate rise on this side of the pond after the US Fed pulled the trigger in December. Thereafter, watch out for a raft of US data including Import Price deflation, Philly Fed, and Jobless Claims which will all be used by both bulls and bears to update speculation on the next US rate rise. Speaker wise we have the Fed’s Bullard and ECB President Draghi.

With Crude prices drifting briefly into the $20s yesterday, be very sceptical whenever you hear news anchors say ‘...oil price strength…’ just because it goes up a buck. It is back in the $30s this morning, but there’s nothing strong about the price of oil right now. When something comes about to change that, we’ll be sure to let you know. Fears rising about US stockpile builds and exacerbation of global supply glut with Iran's return to market.

Gold’s overnight gains mirrored equity market weakness with the yellow metal back in the game as the go-to safe haven. Interestingly appearing to rise faster than it falls of late. While a falling channel from 8 Jan highs could take gold back to $1071, a continued equity market rout could give support at $1086 and $1080 with all three of those levels keeping the 2.5 month uptrend alive.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Tesco beats forecasts with strong British Christmas sales
  • Countryside Properties intends to proceed with IPO
  • Burberry sees rise in third – quarter sales
  • Smiths Group says president of John Crane is leaving group
  • Bookmaker William Hill loses another top executive
  • Premier Oil says can be no certainty over period shares to be suspended
  • Lavendon Group sees 2015 results at top end of market view
  • Dechra Pharma says rev up 15 pct for first half of the year
  • ASOS international sales growth recovers​
  • Moss Bros says ‍like for like sales for first 23 weeks of H2 up 4.2 pct
  • Supergroup backs full year profit forecast
  • Bunzl appoints Frank van Zanten as new chief executive
  • JD Sports sees FY headline pretax profit before items ahead of market expectations
  • UK fund manager Ashmore sees $1.7 bln Q2 net outflows
  • Primark owner AB Foods says total sales rise on new store openings
  • Takeover target Home Retail says poor sales at Argos to hit profit
  • Restaurant Group says full year total turnover​ up 7.9 pct

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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