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Morning Report - 7 January 2016

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
BAE Systems PLC 512.5 18.5 3.7 2.6
Kingfisher PLC 338 10.3 3.1 2.6
Worldpay Group PLC 309.8 5.6 1.8 0.8
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 3602.5 63.5 1.8 0.5
National Grid PLC 950 16.7 1.8 1.3
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
BHP Billiton PLC 709.4 -36.6 -4.9 -6.7
Rio Tinto PLC 1846.5 -93.0 -4.8 -6.7
Anglo American PLC 270.4 -12.8 -4.5 -9.7
Sports Direct International PLC 533 -19.0 -3.4 -7.6
Standard Chartered PLC 515.6 -16.7 -3.1 -8.5
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,073.4 -63.9 -1.04 -2.7
UK 17,059.0 -146.0 -0.85 -2.1
FR CAC 40 4,480.5 -57.2 -1.26 -3.4
DE DAX 30 10,214.0 -96.1 -0.93 -4.9
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,906.5 -252.3 -1.47 -3.0
US Nasdaq Composite 4,835.8 -55.7 -1.14 -3.4
US S&P 500 1,990.3 -26.5 -1.31 -2.6
JP Nikkei 225 17,767.3 -424.0 -2.33 -6.7
HK Hang Seng Index 48 20,410.2 -570.6 -2.72 -6.9
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,010.3 -112.8 -2.20 -5.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, West Texas ($/barrel) 34.83 0.07 -4.89 -10.0
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 32.88 -1.74 -5.03 -9.4
Gold ($/oz) 1098.65 6.35 0.58 3.6
Silver ($/oz) 14.06 0.06 0.43 1.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.463 -0.01 -1.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.082 0.37 -0.7
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.352 -0.39 -0.7
UK 100 Index called to open -145pts @ 5925

UK 100 Index - 1 Week

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -145pts at 5925, having broken below 6000 overnight to maintain its New Year correction from 6300. All eyes on whether we get as low as December lows 5870 and if this can serve as support or whether we revisit 5800 and the intersecting trendline of support from end-July. Watch levels: Bullish 5970, Bearish 5915.

The negative opening call comes as Asian equities lurch 2-3% lower after more turbulence in China as bourses were suspended for the second time this week, investors triggering circuit breakers (-7% after just 15 mins), rushing for the exit, nervous about slowing economic growth, continued need for FX devaluation by the PBOC (5yr lows vs USD) to boost competitivity and overheated equity markets.

Further declines in the price of Oil, testing $33/barrel on supply glut fears have added to the fray, with the 18-month rout taking prices to 12 year lows, which is sure to weigh on both the majors and minors in the sector and prolong the easing of deflationary pressures. Could the $20/barrel that Goldman Sachs be reached sooner than anticipated? 

Geopolitical risk remains to the fore with the fallout from the North Korea H-bomb test, however, the Saudi-Iranian situation is unlikely to deliver any further boost to the price of oil with Iran more likely to oppose any OPEC production cut as it moves to return to market following the lifting of sanctions. US markets followed European counterparts lower after Fed minutes suggested concerns about the economic outlook and absent inflation.

In focus today will be Eurozone Retail Sales seen rebounding in November while regional business sentiment figures are expected to have remained almost unchanged. US Jobs data unlikely to garner much attention given that the fed is happy with unemployment and more focused/worries about inflation, even if tomorrow’s Non-farm Payrolls is sure to see market volatility. After the Fed minutes last night, listen out for Lacker and Evans speaking this afternoon and this evening.

Note commodity prices remain under considerable pressure with Copper breaking below December rising support at $4550, although safehaven Gold has maintained its rally to reach $1100.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  •         Clarkson says trading in line with expectations
  •         Majestic Wine comparable retail sales +7.3% for Christmas period
  •         M&S CEO Marc Bolland to retire in April
  •         BOC Aviation orders 30 A320 family aircraft
  •         Ferrexpo Q4 pellet production +4.3% sequentially
  •         Gold miner Centamin forecasts production ahead of last year
  •         UK builder Persimmon sees 2015 revenue rise as builds more homes
  •         Poundland hit as Christmas shoppers desert the high street
  •         Rathbone Brothers says managed £29.2bn at end-Dec.
  •       EasyJet passenger numbers rise 4.6% in December

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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