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Morning Report - 16 November 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Anglo American PLC 456.2 6.3 1.4 -62.0
CRH PLC 1777 24.0 1.4 15.1
Pearson PLC 781.5 7.5 1.0 -34.3
Intertek Group PLC 2550 20.0 0.8 9.3
GKN PLC 282 2.1 0.8 -18.0
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Rolls-Royce Group PLC 513.5 -23.0 -4.3 -41.0
G4S PLC 227.6 -8.6 -3.6 -18.1
Aberdeen Asset Management PLC 323.7 -11.6 -3.5 -25.1
Burberry Group PLC 1268 -45.0 -3.4 -22.5
Kingfisher PLC 341.5 -11.4 -3.2 0.3
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,104.5 -74.2 -1.20 -7.1
UK 16,742.4 -127.1 -0.75 4.1
FR CAC 40 4,781.2 -75.5 -1.55 11.9
DE DAX 30 10,658.7 -123.9 -1.15 8.7
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,324.0 -124.0 -0.71 -2.8
US Nasdaq Composite 4,962.0 -43.1 -0.86 4.8
US S&P 500 2,032.6 -13.4 -0.65 -1.3
JP Nikkei 225 19,393.7 -203.2 -1.04 11.1
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,040.7 -355.5 -1.59 -6.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,003.8 -47.4 -0.94 -7.5
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 40.52 -1.13 -2.7 -24.6
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 44.61 -0.54 -1.19 -22.5
Gold ($/oz) 1081.75 -1.55 -0.14 -8.6
Silver ($/oz) 14.18 -0.11 -0.75 -9.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.521 -0.13 -2.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.074 -0.65 -11.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.417 0.51 10.0
UK 100 called to open -50pts at 6070

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -50pts at 6070, still in an accelerated November downtrend, even if off its lows following an overnight bounce at 6000 where support kicked in at August rising lows. We note the daily RSI recovering from oversold, but would prefer to see 6130 and the intersecting trendline of support-turned-resistance from 3 Nov at 6100 bettered before assuming a rebound. Watch levels: Bullish 6090, Bearish 6045.

The negative opening call comes after what can only be described as a nightmare series of coordinated terror attacks in the French capital on Friday night. Equating to the worst European terror attack in a decade, our thoughts are with the friends and families of all the victims.

Asia stocks posting understandable losses after a weak US close and the weekend tragedies. Data also confirmed Japan falling into its fourth recession in 5 years and its second since Prime Minister Abe took power just over 3 years ago. After last week’s commodities rout (copper 6yr lows), today’s understandable knee-jerk shift from risky assets to safehavens (Gold, JPY) is likely to see the USD benefit at the continued expense of industrial raw materials, something which is already holding back Aussie equities.

Likely little change to last week’s drivers of a slowing China and its shift to consumption/services-led growth hurting demand for commodities, coupled with a strong USD as markets prepare for a Fed rate hike next month and further central bank policy divergence. The weekend’s events will probably bring Eurozone growth woes back to the fore as poor Q3 GDP published last week could be followed by reduced tourism, further backing the need for more ECB stimulus to  engineer recovery.

In focus today will be the weekend’s events and the response from the G20. Thereafter, with Eurozone growth on the ropes, and calls and expectations for ECB stimulus growing, the Eurozone Consumer Price Inflation will be eyed given the likelihood of the region’s continued flirt with deflation. In the afternoon, watch out for the US Empire state Manufacturing Index seen posting a big recovery.

More selling gripped US markets on Friday with equity futures muted this morning amid slightly softer macro data (Oct retail sales rose less than expected, PPI disappointed), which nonetheless failed to shift market expectations of a Dec rate hike. With the US pledging unwavering support for France as it steps up its bombing campaign against IS militants, expect a short, sharp market reaction today and interest rates to take a back seat.

Crude oil is back under pressure having bounced on geopolitical concerns over the weekend - with record high stockpiles, the world is likely remain suitably oversupplied for the foreseeable future.

Gold continuing to probe higher after record high volumes in the first 10 minutes of trading overnight. Note no-nonsense safe haven demand overcoming a stronger USD - itself serving as ‘port in a storm’ along with the Yen. Will Gold hit $1100 today and indeed benefit this week amid equity market weakness?

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Russia's Polymetal estimates capex for Kyzyl gold project at $328mn

  • Keller Group sees FY results in line with market expectations

  • Majestic Wine says Apthorp to retire from executive role

  • Petrofac awarded a contract by Saudi Aramco

  • Diploma says prospects for further acquisitions remain promising

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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