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Morning Report - 21 October 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC 2471 160.0 6.9 -4.8
Inmarsat PLC 955.5 32.5 3.5 19.5
Whitbread PLC 4882 157.0 3.3 2.4
Glencore PLC 113.5 3.5 3.2 -62.0
Next PLC 7840 170.0 2.2 15.0
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
AstraZeneca PLC 4024.5 -132.0 -3.2 -11.7
Tesco PLC 189.1 -4.5 -2.3 0.1
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 592 -11.5 -1.9 21.8
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC 2077 -28.0 -1.3 5.0
ARM Holdings PLC 963 -12.5 -1.3 -3.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,345.1 -7.2 -0.11 -3.4
UK 16,984.0 66.7 0.39 5.6
FR CAC 40 4,673.8 -30.3 -0.64 9.4
DE DAX 30 10,147.7 -16.6 -0.16 3.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,217.0 -13.5 -0.08 -3.4
US Nasdaq Composite 4,881.0 -24.5 -0.50 3.1
US S&P 500 2,030.8 -2.9 -0.14 -1.4
JP Nikkei 225 18,554.3 347.1 1.91 6.3
HK Hang Seng Index 48 22,989.2 -86.4 -0.37 -2.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,248.3 12.7 0.24 -3.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 46.00 0.13 0.27 -14.4
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 48.54 -0.03 -0.06 -15.7
Gold ($/oz) 1175.75 -1.55 -0.13 -0.6
Silver ($/oz) 15.82 -0.10 -0.64 0.8
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.544 -0.04 -0.9
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.136 0 -6.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.360 -0.05 5.6
UK 100 called to open +25pts at 6375

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +30pts at 6375. Testing 4-mth falling highs just below the 100-day MA with an upwards breakout today having the potential to initiate the second phase of a bullish flag or pennant pattern recovery from late Sept lows. Watch levels remainBullish 6460, Bearish 6220.

The positive opening call for European equities comes as Asian markets, while trading mixed this morning, appear to be driven by investors’ bets on monetary policy. Aussie equities still lacking shine after the RBA gave the economy a clean bill of health, reducing the chances of another rate cut.

More prominently, a way off the mark Japanese trade balance and other disappointing macro readings buoyed the Nikkei on hopes of further stimulus from Shinzo Abe’s government, this coming after BoJ governor Kuroda said that things are looking up for the Japanese economy.

US bourses also lacked lustre into the close after mixed corporate earnings – IBM seen to be holding back sentiment versus good prints from Verizon and BoNY Mellon. Macro data was mixed, adding nothing to the Fed rate debate – US borrowing costs still seen lower for longer, this all pointing towards almost solely corporate drivers this week. Keep a close eye on today’s earnings releases.

Commodities-wise, it’s a good week so far for Gold with the yellow metal just about extending gains to 2 sessions as the USD softens a smidge. However it has now dropped below yesterday’s rising support line which keeps it well within a falling channel since 15 Oct and subject to a possible pullback towards $1170 or $1166 as the day wears on. Again, earnings reports likely to dictate risk sentiment-based movements.

Crude oil prices (both WTI and Brent) have dropped back into the lower halves of their 1.5mth sideways trading ranges after the World Bank lowered its 2015 price forecast to $52/barrel, reflecting a further slowing in the global economy and expectations of additions to current oversupply from Iran.

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Lonmin says taking action to mitigate effects of low PGM prices
  • Sky beats Q1 profit forecast helped by solid broadband demand
  • Lenta completed primary capital increase of $150 million
  • Reckitt Benckiser raises FY LFL revenue target to 5%
  • Bunzl posts Q3 results in line with expectations
  • Reckitt Benckiser lifts outlook after sales top estimates
  • ARM meets expectations with 27% rise in Q3 profit
  • Pearson sees 2015 earnings at lower end of range
  • Acacia Mining Q3 revenue falls 20%
  • Monitise signs cloud platform agreement with Telefónica Digital
  • Lonmin aims for $400mn rights issue, proceeds with job cuts plan
  • UK's Merlin Entertainments to link up with China Media Capital
  • Mobile operator EE's Q3 revenue up 1.2% excl. regulation
  • UK's Home Retail warns on annual profit
  • Fidessa expects to be able to announce a further special dividend in Feb

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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