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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Shire PLC | 4511 | 136.0 | 3.1 | -0.5 |
| Tesco PLC | 196.95 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 4.2 |
| Prudential PLC | 1523 | 36.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Capita PLC | 1264 | 26.0 | 2.1 | 16.9 |
| Whitbread PLC | 4691 | 93.0 | 2.0 | -1.7 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| GKN PLC | 270.3 | -10.2 | -3.6 | -21.4 |
| Burberry Group PLC | 1277 | -25.0 | -1.9 | -21.9 |
| TUI AG | 1210 | -21.0 | -1.7 | 13.1 |
| Rolls-Royce Group PLC | 685.5 | -11.5 | -1.7 | -21.2 |
| Royal Mail Group PLC | 445.8 | -7.2 | -1.6 | 3.7 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,378.0 | 39.4 | 0.62 | -2.9 |
| UK | 16,892.7 | -56.8 | -0.34 | 5.0 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,702.8 | 27.5 | 0.59 | 10.1 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,104.4 | 39.6 | 0.39 | 3.1 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,216.0 | 74.3 | 0.43 | -3.4 |
| US Nasdaq Composite | 4,886.7 | 16.6 | 0.34 | 3.2 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,033.1 | 9.3 | 0.46 | -1.3 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 18,125.2 | -166.7 | -0.91 | 3.9 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 22,925.8 | -141.6 | -0.61 | -2.9 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,269.7 | 1.5 | 0.03 | -2.6 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 47.36 | -0.37 | -0.76 | -11.8 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 50.16 | 0.30 | 0.6 | -12.9 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1172.70 | -4.60 | -0.39 | -0.9 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 15.88 | -0.15 | -0.95 | 1.2 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.544 | – | 0.04 | -0.9 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.137 | – | 0.19 | -6.0 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.358 | – | -0.14 | 5.5 |
UK 100 Index called to open -10pts at 6366. The 100-day moving average around 6400 proving a tough hurdle since 8 Oct while neither bulls nor bears won out into Friday’s close. Note potential for the index to be in consolidation phase of a bullish flag pattern which could yet confirm continuation of that strong October rebound. Note daily RSI strongly supported by rising lows since 24 Aug, not yet overbought, while China data sure to cause movement today. Updated watch levels: Bullish 6500, Bearish 6200.
The mildly negative opening call comes after some arguably unsurprising yet surely wholly expected Chinese economic data that saw its growth rate fall below the key 7% level. At a paltry 6.9% in Q3, it now looks unlikely that the world’s #2 economy and global growth barometer will average its 7% FY target. Industrial production a real downer though...
Let’s not forget that the GDP print beat forecasts while 6.9% isn’t exactly contraction, but what will the markets jump on – hope (for more stimulus) or disappointment (at lacklustre global growth)? Needless to say that with Industrial production missing consensus considerably, pressure will be ramping up on Beijing to implement more economic stimulus.
The rest of Asia trading mixed this morning, digesting that Chinese growth reading alongside retail sales that also beat forecasts, while Japan’s economy seen to be recovering moderately (no change there then…)
More unconvincing macro-data from the US buoyed stateside markets on Friday with the balance in the still rampant rate debate shifted in favour of the doves. No fresh arguments from Fed officials, however, with Mester talking ‘slow and steady’ given clear and present downside risks to the US economy.
The only marginally interesting piece of news here is the Fed’s policymakers deeming it necessary to downplay observations that there are deep divisions within the US central bank regarding US interest rates, which itself is an indication of the unusual situation we find ourselves in whereby US (and UK for that matter) central bank policy strategy doesn’t appear to be doing what it should.
Crude oil subject to mixed drivers from China (macro data) and the US (interest rates). Global oversupply still an issue despite a perceived fall in demand from China while prices off overnight highs despite the prospect of lower US interest rates for longer, which is bound to have more of an effect on the Gold price which is seen stable this morning as markets work out whether there's a risk-on or risk-off week ahead.
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