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Morning Report - 17 July 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Weir Group PLC 1661 67.0 4.2 -10.3
Pearson PLC 1263 35.0 2.9 6.1
Smiths Group PLC 1164 25.0 2.2 6.0
Ashtead Group PLC 1078 21.0 2.0 -6.4
Wolseley PLC 4384 80.0 1.9 18.9
Anglo American PLC 890.3 15.9 1.8 -25.8
Capita PLC 1320 22.0 1.7 22.1
RSA Insurance Group PLC 432.2 6.9 1.6 -0.6
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
BP PLC 422 -5.1 -1.2 2.7
Fresnillo PLC 668.5 -8.0 -1.2 -12.7
Randgold Resources Ltd 4086 -16.0 -0.4 -6.7
United Utilities Group PLC 882.5 -2.5 -0.3 -3.7
Marks & Spencer Group PLC 546 -1.0 -0.2 14.0
AstraZeneca PLC 4336.5 -7.0 -0.2 -4.8
G4S PLC 272.3 -0.3 -0.1 -2.0
BG Group PLC 1076 -1.0 -0.1 24.4
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,796.5 42.7 0.63 3.5
UK 17,765.4 128.3 0.73 10.4
FR CAC 40 5,121.5 74.3 1.47 19.9
DE DAX 30 11,716.8 177.1 1.54 19.5
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,120.3 70.1 0.39 1.7
US Nasdaq Composite 100 5,163.2 64.2 1.26 9.0
US S&P 500 2,124.3 16.9 0.80 3.2
JP Nikkei 225 20,643.5 43.4 0.21 18.3
HK Hang Seng Index 48 25,439.8 277.0 1.10 7.8
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,674.0 4.4 0.08 4.9
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 50.97 -0.08 -0.16 -5.1
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 57.02 -0.53 -0.92 -1.0
Gold ($/oz) 1143.05 -0.25 -0.02 -3.4
Silver ($/oz) 14.97 -4.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.563 0.00 0.12 0.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.090 0.00 0.12 -9.9
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.435 0.00 0.01 11.4
UK 100 called to open flat at 6795

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open flat at 6795, with the uptrend from recent lows still valid and the recent struggle to get above 6800 likely being just a pause before the next up-leg towards May/June highs of 7000. Any pullback likely to find support at the 200-day MA 6750. Updated Watch levelsBullish 6815Bearish 6770.

The flat opening call comes despite a positive session in Asia derived from receding concerns on Greece and China (stimulus led equity rebound) which put the spotlight back on the outlook for US interest rates and saw the USD strengthen yet further.

Greek progress as parliamentary approval should allow creditors sign off on the €7bn bridge loan to repay ECB debt on Monday and clear IMF arrears, while the has ECB increased emergency bank lending to Greek banks which could allow them reopen on Monday after three weeks closure.

Note lawmakers in Germany, where another Greek bailout is not welcomed but whose approval is required for final Greek bailout discussions, vote today. This may lead to some market nerves but a preliminary vote by Conservatives saw dissenters fail to disrupt the majority - fear of the unknown of a Grexit scenario appear to be keeping even non-believers in a third bailout onside.

US markets closed higher (note Nasdaq 15yr highs on tech rally) on Greek progress and positive Q2 results from a host of US corporates (Google, Netflix, Citigroup, eBay and Philip Morris) and despite Fed Chair Yellen repeating her Wednesday testimony that rates would rise sometime in 2015. Investors focusing more on the ‘economy getting closer to normal’ element and more positives than negatives.

Asian bourses following Wall St’s lead in trading higher overnight – in fact, posting their best week-long performance since April – with Japan’s Nikkei benefitting from a weak Yen after the US Fed’s Yellen testified hawkishly on Wednesday (USD/JPY went above 124 on Thurs). Japanese exporters were pleased.

Chinese markets went up on hopes of a liquidity injection by the government into the Chinese Development Bank.  Greece is likely seen as a ‘non-issue’ in the short term now that talk of an exit from the Euro has been shelved.

Aussie ASX the underperformer in the region, going lower as mining stocks lost recent momentum and this despite Australia’s leading index showing an improvement (positive (+0.2%) for May following a 0.3% decline in April and flat print in March).

In focus today will be the German parliamentary vote (no timeframe, could be late like in Greece with everybody having their say first). Data-wise, the main event will be US Housing Starts and Permits and Consumer Price Inflation which can have a bearing on interest rate outlook. Note the Uni of Michigan sentiment index expected flat.

US light Crude ($50) currently at the floor of a sideways (slightly down trending) channel after retracing Thursday’s modest gains, while Brent ($57) crawling along 8-day rising support with converging falling highs adding pressure. Note divergence in spread between the two benchmarks. Will falling US inventories and higher demand from US refineries help to allay further downside before the weekend, or will risk-off mentality ensue?

Gold ($1144) lower yet again after the German conservatives voted to start talking about the details of a third Greek bailout while Grexit plans were locked away for the time being. So when investors are confident, they sell gold; when they’re worried, they don’t buy it. A strong US Dollar with all this talk of interest rate hikes likely contributing to Gold’s seeming change of purpose of late with the 3-month downtrend intact. Potential for a re-visit of 12-month lows $1132?

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires/Bloomberg)

  • BoE's Carney signals rate hike decision around turn of year
  • Marks & Spencer clothing boss quits firm for new role
  • Homeserve says trading in line, sees good growth in 2016
  • Providence Resources confirms presence of pre – cretaceous Diablo ridge
  • Evraz says Q2 crude steel output down 14 pct q/q
  • B&M European says to at least meet FY profit expectations
  • British Land says DRW Trading Group agrees terms at Leadenhall building

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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