Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -10pts at 6600, having fallen below 6000 after the European close, but off its overnight lows of 6570. Nonetheless, failure to hold above 6630 yesterday keeps downtrend from end-May intact. Bulls hoping Tuesday’s 6495 lows are platform for recovery, while Bears expect another leg down towards 6300. Watch levels: Bullish 6660, Bearish 6540.

The negative opening call comes after US and European equities engaged in some Wednesday volatility, with news that Tsipras had said he would accept the latest bailout proposals that were previously rejected on Monday. Markets duly retracted gains overnight after angry commentators extracted the finer technicalities from Tsipras’s letter to conclude that there remain big differences of opinion, thus stifling hopes of an imminent deal.

Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis still hopeful of a deal by Monday (will accept strict austerity measures but only alongside debt relief), but with the Eurogroup refusing to talk until after Sunday’s Greferendum, that seems like wishful thinking. The ECB has kept Emergency Liquidity Assistance for the banks going for the time being.

US stocks were held back from significant gains by energy stocks after ADP employment data beat expectations (237K versus consensus 218K; 203K previously – a solid beat) in the run-up to today’s Non-Farms report (note Friday is a US bank holiday), with oil prices hitting 2-month lows and by the swift retraction of claims that the Greek PM was willing to accept last weekend’s bailout terms after all.

Asian markets largely positive ahead of US jobs report and despite Greek debacle delivering more twists and turns than an alpine pass. PM Tsipras says willing to accept creditor proposals before encouraging electorate to vote ‘no’ in Sunday’s referendum. Eurogroup says ‘here to help’ but no further negotiations until after referendum. Talk about mixed messages.

China still suffering from volatility and further losses despite regulators moving to stem the unwinding of margin-trading fuelled bullish bets with lower transaction costs and relaxed margin requirements to reduce forced selling from margin calls now the market has turned. As the root of the problem, surely these moves are just destined to worsen the situation further down the line.

Japan’s Nikkei higher thanks to optimism of a Greek solution and US data which boosted the USD and thus weakened the JPY which is good for Japanese exporters. After solid US ADP Employment data yesterday, watch for further USD strength in anticipation of a good US June Jobs report which could add to the case for a US rate rise and give the Nikkei a further fillip.

Australia’s ASX outperforming on Greek deal hopes as well as an improved trade deficit (even if not as good as expected) and despite further falls in commodities prices on the stronger USD.

In focus today we have the US Non-Farm Payrolls, brought forward ahead of Independence Day. In its shadows will be Eurozone PPI with US Factory Orders later this afternoon. Keep a watchful eye on Non-Farms though after yesterday’s gleaming US ADP employment print. As always, this is the one piece of macro data that can really move markets.  See the live Macro-Calendar for a fullrundown with expectations.

Gold has fallen back to test $1165 due to the stronger USD and still hindered by demand for alternative safehavens (USD in demand itself, USD strength also making JPY cheaper). Closing on early June lows of $1162. Downtrend from 28 June accelerated.

US Crude inventory data yesterday sent prices lower (lowest in 2 months) after showing the first increase in supply in 9 weeks (2.4mn barrels for the week ending 26 June, to be precise) after imports spiked following the closure and re-opening of a shipping channel that saw backed-up tankers descend on US ports. This morning’s levels: Brent ($62); WTI ($57).

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UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires/Bloomberg)

• UK lowers stake in Lloyds Banking Group to 15.9 percent
• Persimmon says May election did not dent UK consumer confidence
• British house prices show surprise fall in June – Nationwide
• Hunting says outlook continues to remain unclear
• Dixons Carphone arm in deal with Sprint Corp to open U.S. stores
• APR Energy signs contract to supply gas turbine power for Egyptian industrial plant
• Kier completes disposal of fleet and passenger services division
• Halfords names Jonny Mason as new CFO
• Carlyle, MBK on bidders' shortlist for Tesco S.Korea unit