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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| TUI AG | 1156 | 33.0 | 2.9 | 8.0 |
| ARM Holdings PLC | 1118 | 30.0 | 2.8 | 12.4 |
| Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC | 1947 | 52.0 | 2.7 | -1.6 |
| London Stock Exchange Group PLC | 2404 | 54.0 | 2.3 | 8.2 |
| St James’s Place PLC | 891.5 | 19.0 | 2.2 | 9.5 |
| Sports Direct International PLC | 683.5 | 12.5 | 1.9 | -3.9 |
| 3i Group PLC | 526.5 | 9.5 | 1.8 | 17.0 |
| Ashtead Group PLC | 1120 | 20.0 | 1.8 | -2.8 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Fresnillo PLC | 712.5 | -14.5 | -2.0 | -7.0 |
| Glencore PLC | 271.55 | -4.8 | -1.7 | -9.1 |
| Royal Mail Group PLC | 502.5 | -6.5 | -1.3 | 16.9 |
| Randgold Resources Ltd | 4498 | -48.0 | -1.1 | 2.7 |
| Diageo PLC | 1879 | -19.0 | -1.0 | 1.7 |
| Hammerson PLC | 630 | -5.5 | -0.9 | 4.1 |
| BP PLC | 431.35 | -3.1 | -0.7 | 5.0 |
| SABMiller PLC | 3339.5 | -23.5 | -0.7 | -0.6 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,710.5 | 2.6 | 0.04 | 2.2 |
| UK | 17,705.0 | 26.1 | 0.15 | 10.1 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,815.4 | 11.9 | 0.25 | 12.7 |
| DE DAX 30 | 11,040.0 | -60.2 | -0.54 | 12.6 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,014.3 | -101.6 | -0.56 | 1.1 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 5,117.0 | -16.0 | -0.31 | 8.0 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,109.8 | -11.5 | -0.54 | 2.5 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 20,377.9 | 203.6 | 1.01 | 16.8 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 26,851.9 | 91.4 | 0.34 | 13.8 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,597.0 | 72.1 | 1.31 | 3.4 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 59.99 | 0.30 | 0.49 | 11.1 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 63.09 | 0.43 | 0.69 | 8.8 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1197.85 | -1.95 | -0.16 | 1.4 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.06 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 2.3 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1079.50 | -6.00 | -0.55 | -10.2 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.590 | – | 0.11 | 2.0 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.139 | – | 0.33 | -6.2 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.396 | – | -0.21 | 8.7 |
UK 100 Index called to open +55pts at 6765, having found support around 6685 on Friday and held above 6700 overnight. A trio of higher highs and lows since Thursday adds weight to the potential for a rebound although the 200-day moving average 6744 and 6750 resistance remain to be breached decisively. While the prospect of a double-bottom reversal may be out, could a complex head & shoulders bottom reversal be on the menu? Watch levels: Bullish 6765, Bearish 6670.
The positive opening call ushers in a new week with new hope of progress (Dax called to open +200pts). in Greek bailout negotiations ahead of the EU ministers’ meeting later today. Athens has presented a new proposal to creditors ahead of an emergency summit later today that could decide Greece’s future in the euro. On the other hand, it could be seen as yet another can-kicking plan to buy time and a little more cash as the end-June deadline looms for the next tranche of debt repayments.
The ECB's limited top-up of emergency liquidity on Friday may have worked in terms of forcing Tsipras into concessions and compromise, with the prospect of Greek banks bleeding dry of deposits and collapsing without capital controls proving too much for even he, the stubborn leader, to stomach. Obviously there's only so far you can hold out. But again, we have yet to hear the words 'we have a deal'.
US markets had another red Friday as investors sold off into the close to hedge weekend risk and are largely flat in futures trading this morning ahead of the EU ministers’ meeting. In Fed news, we had a dove and a hawk offering their opinions with Williams needing more convincing that the US economy is ready for a rate rise while Mester believing it is healthy enough to stomach a 25 basis point hike. Note US equity futures called nicely higher like Europe.
Asian equities positive in response to news that Greek PM Tspiras offered a fresh 'mutually beneficial' plan (incl. concessions) ahead today's crunch emergency EU summit which could form the basis of a deal with creditors to provide access to much needed funds to avoid 30 Jun default on IMF debt and a collapse of its banks. However, 'tis but a plan - not yet a deal.
Japan's Nikkei higher thanks to financials as investors take an optimistic stance of a Greek solution rather than tragedy and a slightly weaker JPY (stronger EUR on Greek deal progress). Australia's ASX positive but underperforming, hindered by a handful of banks.
Chinese markets are closed for national holiday. After last week's 13% decline, note JPMorgan saying last week's declines are a reason to Buy, while Blackrock sees things deflating quite rapidly. Let's see what happens when markets re-open tomorrow. Hope of stimulus or fear of bubble bust? Hong Kong's Hang Seng positive on the back of Greek progress and despite mainland shares on holiday.
In focus today we have a quiet macro-bill with US Chicago Fed national activity index at 13-30 and existing home sales / Eurozone consumer confidence coming in at 15-00. The real focus will be this afternoon’s Eurozone meetings on Greece, with the Eurogroup meeting at 14-00 and EU leaders doing so at 18-00. As always, see the live macro-calendar for a full rundown.
Oil prices range-bound this morning (narrowest in 19 months) as speculators retreat from Crude – most notably hedge funds which took out record long positions earlier in the year - and growing OPEC output (most oil pumped last month since Oct 2012) being met by a contraction in US supplies (Baker Hughes Rig count down yet again, shale production due to shrink this month according to EIA estimates). Brent currently @ $63 while US Light trading @ $60.
Gold has traded back from its revisit of 1 Jun highs and the 200-day moving average at $1204. Nonetheless the Fed-led rebound via a weaker USD has offset the downtrend form mid-May and so current weakness may just be a pause. Watch for a break above the 200-day moving average which could open up gains to May highs $1232.
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
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