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Morning Report - 17 June 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
British American Tobacco PLC 3511 99.5 2.9 0.3
Barratt Developments PLC 609.5 13.5 2.3 29.4
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 3246 71.0 2.2 14.5
Centrica PLC 267.4 5.4 2.1 -4.2
Taylor Wimpey PLC 186.9 3.5 1.9 35.6
Persimmon PLC 1959 32.0 1.7 24.1
Mondi PLC 1380 18.0 1.3 31.4
SABMiller PLC 3336.5 37.0 1.1 -0.7
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Randgold Resources Ltd 4502 -124.0 -2.7 2.8
Ashtead Group PLC 1097 -30.0 -2.7 -4.8
Anglo American PLC 972.2 -22.2 -2.2 -19.0
Rio Tinto PLC 2745.5 -61.0 -2.2 -8.5
Antofagasta PLC 712.5 -15.5 -2.1 -5.3
Fresnillo PLC 720 -13.5 -1.8 -6.0
BT Group PLC 445.25 -7.3 -1.6 10.9
Glencore PLC 274.2 -4.1 -1.5 -8.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,710.1 -0.4 -0.01 2.2
UK 17,736.2 7.5 0.04 10.3
FR CAC 40 4,839.9 24.5 0.51 13.3
DE DAX 30 11,044.0 59.0 0.54 12.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,904.5 113.3 0.64 0.5
US Nasdaq Composite 100 5,055.6 25.6 0.51 6.7
US S&P 500 2,096.3 11.9 0.57 1.8
JP Nikkei 225 20,235.6 -22.3 -0.11 16.0
HK Hang Seng Index 48 26,765.7 199.0 0.75 13.4
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,594.3 58.5 1.06 3.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 60.04 0.03 0.04 11.7
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 63.77 -0.11 -0.17 11.0
Gold ($/oz) 1178.75 -2.85 -0.24 -0.1
Silver ($/oz) 15.92 -0.05 -0.3 1.8
Platinum ($/oz) 1075.90 -4.40 -0.41 -10.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.564 0.03 0.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.126 0.12 -7.1
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.390 -0.11 8.1
UK 100 called to open +15pts at 6725

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open +15pts at 6725, having managed to rebound above 6700 following a test of April lows 6670. Nonetheless, falling highs from end-May remain to be bettered. 6720 holding overnight is a good sign which could help with regaining Jun 11 highs of 6870, retracing some of the recent sell-off. Watch for hurdle at 6745 via the 200-day moving average. Watch levelsBullish 6755Bearish 6690.

The positive opening call comes as investors get something else to chew on this morning – with the FOMC meeting later today expected to continue to play out the soap opera that is US interest rates. With recent US macro data thus far failing to make the case for a June hike, are markets pricing in a further delay until 2016, despite the Fed making it clear that September is the next viable opportunity?

US bourses seem to think so this morning with the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all up and potentially in the throes of bullish double bottom patterns giving slim chances of returns to mid-May highs dependant, of course, on the Greek outcome.

Meanwhile, Euro-dramas go on in the background with visibly haggard Greek government ministers and Eurozone creditors still locked in intense negotiations with neither side willing to budge while assurances are made that the IMF will be paid as long as Athens has the means to do so, and Athenian banks will get ELA support from the ECB as long as they don’t default. The cash merry-go-round continues to turn.

Asian equities mixed overnight with caution and uncertainty dominant ahead of this evening’s Fed policy update where Chair Yellen could take a more hawkish tone on rate hike timing. Unsurprisingly still weighing on sentiment is the Greek saga, dragging on without relent, the nation’s fate perilously in the balance as failure by Greece and its Creditors to cede ground continues and a mud-slinging blame game by all and sundry for the lack of progress gathers pace. The clock ticks ever closer to default.

Japan’s Nikkei in the red on low volume, having swung between gains and losses with advances by food makers offsetting declines by metals producers. Better than expected trade data failed to help as Exports growth slowed by the most in 9 months despite a weaker JPY and Imports growth weakened further.

China stocks have reversed earlier losses, previously hurt by fear their world-beating rally had gone too far. Note Australia’s ASX positive thanks to the China rebound and despite the Aussie Westpac Leading Index falling in May and April revised down to flat - the fourth straight month, suggesting stalling momentum.

In focus today is, of course, that FOMC policy statement and the accompanying press conference by Janet Yellen. No US rate rise expected this time round while plenty of speculation for September should be giving investors the jitters as always. Elsewhere, the ECB is meeting to discuss ELA extensions for Greek banks under a shadow of burgeoning capital outflows that have increased every day this week. Later on we have the IMF’s Lagarde speaking while on the macro-front we’ve got UK employment data and Eurozone CPI this morning. See the live macro-calendar for a full rundown.

Gold back down below $1180 after a bounce from $1176 failed to build as equities rebounded late yesterday. Volatility still attractive ahead of the Fed meeting and with Greek woes very much aliveThe 100-day moving average remains a hurdle for the safehaven at $1194 while it trades within a $1175-1190 range.

Crude prices back above $60 (WTI $60.5; Brent $63.9), holding firm on a softer US Dollar and in anticipation of this week’s US stockpiles data (due later today) with forecasts indicating another contraction and traders reacting in kind this morning. Supply glut worries continue, however, with Iran’s nuclear talks potentially flooding the market with yet more crude as sanctions are lifted and a possible 25% increase in output from Iraq.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Old Mutual Asset Management prices share offer at $17.50/share
  • Charles Taylor names Edward Creasy as Chairman
  • JD Sports says makes good start to new year
  • Inland Homes sells 205 residential plots for £19m
  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum completes consent process for notes due 2017
  • Atlas Mara sells stake in Brainworks for $8.72 m
  • Keysight Technologies to buy Anite in $606.9 m deal
  • Builder Berkeley profits surge 42%, but warns over EU referendum
  • EU regulators to decide by July 20 on Rexam's $6.9bn merger with Ball

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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