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Morning Report - 1 May 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Royal Mail Group PLC 467.7 23.5 5.3 8.8
Sports Direct International PLC 619 14.5 2.4 -12.9
Weir Group PLC 1880 44.0 2.4 1.6
Associated British Foods PLC 2857 66.0 2.4 -9.4
Capita PLC 1144 25.0 2.2 5.8
Aberdeen Asset Management PLC 475.1 9.0 1.9 9.9
St James’s Place PLC 892.5 14.5 1.7 9.6
Standard Life PLC 467.9 7.4 1.6 -4.3
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Centrica PLC 255.4 -12.2 -4.6 -8.5
ITV PLC 253.6 -9.9 -3.8 17.8
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 338.5 -11.0 -3.2 -14.2
Anglo American PLC 1105 -33.5 -2.9 -8.0
Fresnillo PLC 719.5 -19.5 -2.6 -6.1
Randgold Resources Ltd 4964 -131.0 -2.6 13.3
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 545 -14.0 -2.5 12.1
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC 186.8 -3.8 -2.0 1.4
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,960.6 14.4 0.21 6.0
UK 17,474.6 -6.6 -0.04 8.6
FR CAC 40 5,046.5 7.1 0.14 18.1
DE DAX 30 11,454.4 21.7 0.19 16.8
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,840.5 -195.0 -1.08 0.1
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,941.4 -82.2 -1.64 4.3
US S&P 500 2,085.5 -21.3 -1.01 1.3
JP Nikkei 225 19,471.3 -48.8 -0.25 11.6
HK Hang Seng Index 48 28,133.0 -267.3 -0.94 19.2
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,814.9 24.9 0.43 7.5
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 59.73 0.15 0.24 10.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 66.73 0.37 0.56 15.3
Gold ($/oz) 1180.95 -2.75 -0.23 0.0
Silver ($/oz) 16.15 0.05 0.3 2.6
Platinum ($/oz) 1141.45 -1.15 -0.1 -5.5
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.535 -0.04 -1.4
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.121 0 -7.3
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.369 -0.02 6.3
UK 100 called to open -20pts at 6946

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Today's Main Events

  • 0930                       UK                          Net Consumer Credit
  • 0930                       UK                          Mortgage Approvals
  • 0930                       UK                          Money Supply
  • 1500                       USA                       Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing
  • 1800                       USA                       Baker Hughes Rig Count

 

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open -20pts at 6946 having failed to re-take support at 7000 which is still serving as resistance this morning. A still-strengthening Euro continues to affect equities even though bond markets sold off yesterday as well. Weak support holding this morning around 6930 with a rising trendline providing backup around 6900. Watch levels: Bullish 7050, Bearish 6800.

The negative open comes after the Euro held its biggest monthly gain in 4.5 years. Speculators had built up record bets on euro weakness as the ECB started its QE programme the US Fed discussed raising interest rates this year. That policy divergence remains, after economic reports Thursday underscored the Fed’s assessment that recent weakness in U.S. growth may be transitory, or not transitory.

In Europe, Greek PM Tsipras told the Greek cabinet he is confident a deal is close (whatever, Alexis). An unnamed Greek official also indicated optimism on coming to an agreement with creditors in the next few days.

US stocks extended their losses yesterday to finish the session in the red following mixed macro-economic data that caused a selloff in the tech sector and a 1.6 percent plunge in the Nasdaq. However, the marginally softer prints for personal income and spending were largely ignored by investors in the bond market, which managed to pare losses to close only marginally negative.

Most Asian markets are closed for Labor Day holiday. Nonetheless, Macro data from china and Japan led investors to sell the Nikkei and Aussie ASX, both of which have posted losses overnight.

In focus today we have UK net consumer credit for March with forecasts of £0.8bn, compared to £0.7bn at the last print. Increased spending power signalled by a rise in consumer held debt is usually a sign of economic recovery, though alarmingly high increases should obviously be viewed with concern for their potential to trigger a slowdown. Mortgage Approvals are expected to increase while the UK’s Manufacturing PMI is looking to improve, remaining in expansion. Later in the day we have US Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing and the University of Michigan Sentiment reading all looking for an increase.

US Light crude ($59) and the Brent benchmark ($66) are higher this morning, still in their respective uptrends having broken through horizontal resistance at $65.8 (brent) and $58.6 (WTI). Watch level for Brent is now $67 while WTI will look to break above $60 if the uptrend is indeed still alive into the weekend.

Gold ($1204) is back yet again below $1200 but supported at $1182 by a rising trend line dating back to mid-March. Key resistance still holding at $1220 with a recovery back to that sort of level unlikely before next week after a massive selloff yesterday.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • China                     Manufacturing PMI                         Beat, Unchanged
  • China                     Non-Manufacturing PMI              Deteriorated
  • Japan                    Labor Cash Earnings                        Missed, Unchanged
  • Japan                    Real Cash Earnings                           Deteriorated

 

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Lloyds Q1 profits up 21% as bad debt losses fall, margins rise
  • Lloyds lifts guidance on asset quality for 2015
  • Smiths Group names Chris O'Shea as new finance director
  • Allied irish says made Q1 profit, NIM increases
  • Johnson Service says to buy London Linen Supply for £65.4mn
  • Virgin Money says Q1 net mortgage lending rises 82 pct
  • Colt Group Q1 revenue falls 1.3% to €394.6mn
  • Allied Irish says to cut standard variable rate mortgages
  • Rentokil on track to achieve profit expectations, after strong Q1
  • Cape says wins two – year contract with BP worth about £100mn
  • Max Petroleum says refinancing talks continue to be "positive"
  • Oxford Instruments buys Medical Imaging Resources for initial $10.4mn
  • Oxford Instruments acquires Medical Imaging Resources
  • UK's Rough gas storage site in unplanned partial outage – Centrica

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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