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Morning Report - 30 April 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Weir Group PLC 1836 98.0 5.6 -0.8
Next PLC 7285 120.0 1.7 6.8
Royal Mail Group PLC 444.2 6.6 1.5 3.3
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC 2844 40.0 1.4 9.6
Randgold Resources Ltd 5095 60.0 1.2 16.3
Anglo American PLC 1138.5 9.5 0.8 -5.2
Sainsbury (J) PLC 268.3 2.2 0.8 8.8
Travis Perkins PLC 2076 16.0 0.8 11.8
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC 2042 -79.0 -3.7 3.2
CRH PLC 1823 -69.0 -3.7 18.1
Dixons Carphone PLC 418.9 -13.1 -3.0 -9.4
Carnival PLC 2964 -92.0 -3.0 1.5
Unilever PLC 2846 -83.0 -2.8 8.3
Centrica PLC 267.6 -7.7 -2.8 -4.1
GKN PLC 350 -9.9 -2.8 1.7
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 3172 -89.0 -2.7 11.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,946.3 -84.3 -1.20 5.8
UK 17,481.2 -178.2 -1.01 8.7
FR CAC 40 5,039.4 -134.0 -2.59 17.9
DE DAX 30 11,432.7 -379.0 -3.21 16.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,035.5 -74.6 -0.41 1.2
US Nasdaq Composite 100 5,023.6 -31.8 -0.63 6.1
US S&P 500 2,106.9 -7.9 -0.37 2.3
JP Nikkei 225 19,547.3 -511.6 -2.55 12.0
HK Hang Seng Index 48 28,182.8 -217.6 -0.77 19.4
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,775.8 -62.8 -1.08 6.7
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 58.60 0.10 0.16 8.9
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 65.58 -0.28 -0.43 14.4
Gold ($/oz) 1202.75 -1.35 -0.11 1.8
Silver ($/oz) 16.49 -0.08 -0.47 5.6
Platinum ($/oz) 1149.00 -3.70 -0.32 -4.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.542 -0.02 -1.0
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.111 -0.06 -8.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.389 0.04 7.8
UK 100 called to open +19pts at 6959

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 0855                       Germany             Retail sales
  • 1000                       Eurozone             Unemployment Rate; CPI
  • 1330                       USA                       Initial Jobless Claims; Continuing Claims
  • 1330                       USA                       Personal Income & Spending

 

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +19pts at 6959 having broken through support at 7000, joining global index peers in a broad selloff yesterday as markets reacted to a strengthening Euro and weakening US Dollar basket that shifted investor focus from equities to fixed income. UK 100 has since made a bounce off new support at 6920 with 6900 providing backup. Rising 3-month support providing additional protection from further downside to keep a shallow uptrend alive for the time being. Watch levels: Bullish 7120, Bearish 6800.

The positive open comes after a significant wobble on Wednesday afternoon that saw the DAX lose a shocking 530 points. Elsewhere, data showed UK consumer confidence to be unchanged in April, holding around 12 year highs. Little on the wires regarding Greece this morning save a downgrade from Mooody’s on its government bonds citing high uncertainty on whether a deal can be reached.

US bourses closed negative Wednesday after macro data disappointed once again indicating a slowdown in US economic growth in Q1. The FOMC left itself with plenty of room for manoeuvre as usual with little in the way of certainty coming out of the meeting last night. The Fed has not explicitly ruled out a June interest rate hike, making the outcome more hawkish than expected. Still, it has always maintained that any decision on interest rates must be based on data and with recent data coming in consistently divergent with consensus, a June hike is still seen by many as unlikely.

Asian equities are also lower Thursday, paring an impressive April surge and following as they always do cues from (a currently nervous) Wall St. the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged despite inflation remaining lacklustre. The Yen strengthened as a result with the USD/JPY pair making session lows of 188.55. Overnight macro data from Japan was largely positive (to put another way, less negative) with Industrial Production improving, or to put it another way, seen contracting at a lower rate.

Today’s macro-economic releases encompass German, Eurozone and US employment data with German retail sales, Eurozone CPI (a positive reading indicating inflation) and US personal income & spending alongside. Forecasts have meant little so far this week with many prints coming in much softer than expected and there’s little reason to expect differently today, especially where US data is concerned in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes.

US Light crude ($58) and the Brent benchmark ($65) spiked Wednesday to remain in their respective uptrends. Both off highs this morning with Brent back testing support at rising lows. Note horizontal resistance at $65.8 (brent) and $58.6 (WTI) tested but still holding.

Gold ($1204) is heading back yet again to the $1200 level it’s been trading around for 2 months now as the dollar basket recovers and despite FOMC uncertainty (well, unofficially certain – a June rate hike is unlikely). A break of resistance at $1220 would be bullish for the yellow metal but so far remains out of bounds. Support around $1180 providing the lower bound to a sideways trading channel.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Japan                    Industrial Production                      Beat, Less Negative

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Schroders says first quarter assets under management up 7%
  • Shell profits beat expectations on refining boost
  • Ferrexpo considers disposal of stake in Ferrous Resources
  • Copper producer Kaz Minerals says on track to hit 2015 output target
  • Estate agent Foxtons posts 3% dip in Q1 revenue
  • RBS says in advanced settlement discussions with DOJ on FX probe
  • RBS sets aside further $1.3bn for misconduct charges
  • IPF Q1 underlying profit rises 18%
  • Zoopla Property to acquire Ulysses Enterprises for £160mn
  • Galliford Try names Peter Truscott CEO
  • Fidessa Group sees further reductions in headwind
  • Moneysupermarket.com says makes good start to year

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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