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Morning Report - 16 April 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Next PLC 7285 175.0 2.5 6.8
AstraZeneca PLC 4857.5 57.5 1.2 6.6
CRH PLC 1857 54.0 3.0 20.3
Randgold Resources Ltd 4985 47.0 1.0 13.8
Burberry Group PLC 1829 45.0 2.5 11.8
Royal Dutch Shell PLC 2122 36.0 1.7 -5.0
Intertek Group PLC 2664 35.0 1.3 14.1
Diageo PLC 1967 33.0 1.7 6.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC 2173 -52.0 -2.3 9.8
Bunzl PLC 1860 -50.0 -2.6 5.4
Carnival PLC 3259 -37.0 -1.1 11.7
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC 6055 -36.0 -0.6 16.2
Whitbread PLC 5310 -35.0 -0.7 11.3
Severn Trent PLC 2142 -30.0 -1.4 6.8
easyJet PLC 1844 -27.0 -1.4 10.4
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC 2755 -26.0 -0.9 6.2
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,096.8 21.5 0.30 8.1
UK 17,873.5 14.7 0.08 11.1
FR CAC 40 5,254.4 36.3 0.70 23.0
DE DAX 30 12,231.3 3.7 0.03 24.7
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,112.6 75.9 0.42 1.6
US Nasdaq Composite 100 5,011.0 33.7 0.68 5.8
US S&P 500 2,106.6 10.8 0.51 2.3
JP Nikkei 225 19,852.0 -17.7 -0.09 13.8
HK Hang Seng Index 48 27,686.6 67.8 0.25 17.3
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,941.7 33.3 0.56 9.8
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 56.45 0.44 0.79 4.3
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 63.15 1.91 3.12 6.4
Gold ($/oz) 1202.70 -1.70 -0.14 1.8
Silver ($/oz) 16.36 0.02 0.11 4.2
Platinum ($/oz) 1163.05 -1.05 -0.09 -3.7
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.483 0.01 -4.8
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.068 0.05 -11.8
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.388 -0.03 7.9
UK 100 called to open +10pts at 7100

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 1330                       USA                       Jobless Claims / Continuing Claims, Housing Starts
  • 1500                       USA                       Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook

 

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +10pts at 7100, following rising support at rising lows since 6 April while failing to make new highs in the process. Updated watch levels: Bullish 7200, bearish 7000.

The positive open comes despite European equities opening weakly as worries over the Greek situation appear to be increasing, with the EU indicating that Greece’s negotiations with international creditors are going very slowly and are nowhere near the point where bailout money can be released. The Greek government is running out of money fast and threatening to default on its next debt repayment if funds aren’t made available. Opposition parties in Greece rounded on the Syriza party on Thursday, accusing tsipras and Co. of lacking strategy in negotiations and generally being a bit hopeful.

US markets closed Wednesday’s session in positive territory following the release of the Fed’s Beige Book which stated that the US economy is ‘powering through headwinds’- that is to say it is growing slowly and modestly. A first rate hike is extremely unlikely in April, but the jury is still out on June with a split down the middle of the Fed’s 12 districts as to when would be the best time to raise short term rates from near zero, where they have languished since 2008. The IMF said that widespread volatility could be initiated by any ‘surprise move’ by the Fed.

Asian Bourses are largely positive with the USD/JPY recovering from early losses which took the pair down to a session low of 118.8 overnight. Strong employment data from Australia took the AUD/USD to session highs – 37,000 new jobs were created in March bringing the unemployment rate down to 6.7%. Japan has overtaken China as the world’s #1 foreign US government bond holder as the latter holds its portfolio steady in the midst of a massive economic slowdown. Over the past year, Japan has boosted its holdings by a net $13.6 billion, while China’s holdings dropped by $49.2 billion.

In focus today we have  US Jobless Claims at 1330 followed immediately by Housing Starts and Building Permits. At 1500 the Philadelphia Fed gives its business outlook for April – a useful potential indicator for later, more important data on US manufacturing.

Oil prices popped up overnight and are taking a break this morning, with Nymex West Texas Intermediate (US Light) gaining 6% to its highest level so far this year. Weekly U.S. oil stockpiles rose by just 1.3 million barrels in March compared to expectations of 3.5 million barrels, slightly alleviating global supply glut worries. OPEC publishes its monthly oil market report later today. US Light trading at $56, while Brent is currently at $63.

Gold ($1205) is back above the psyche level $1200 as the US Dollar basket pulls back. The yellow metal is in a volatile uptrend since hitting 2015 lows around $1145 in March and is now trading above its 50-day moving average. The price is also likely supported by demand in India with the Akshaya Tritiya festival which happens next week, with participants traditionally decorating themselves with the yellow metal in a show of wealth and prosperity.

Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Aussie                   Consumer Inflation Expectation                                Increased
  • Aussie                   Employment Change                                      Beat, Improved
  • Aussie                   Unemployment Rate                                     Beat, Slightly Reduced

 

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Russia's Polymetal Q1 revenue down 11%
  • Sabmiller says FY lager volume in line with last year
  • Pennon buys Sembcorp Bournemouth Water to expand business retail arm
  • Pennon to raise £100M from share placing
  • Unilever first-quarter sales better than expected
  • Easyhotel acquires building in Liverpool for £3M
  • Blinkx completes acquisition of All Media Network
  • Diageo appoints John O'Keeffe president of Diageo Africa
  • Diageo quarterly sales fall
  • Astrazeneca, Immunocore tie-up to conduct immuno-oncology trials
  • Alexander Mining enters licence agreement for Sivas copper projectmin
  • Persimmon says election disrupting planning for builders
  • WH Smith pretax profit up 4% in six months to Feb
  • Mobile Tornado FY rev fell 34%
  • Debenhams posts half-year profit rise ahead of expectations
  • Petra Diamonds Q3 production up 6%
  • Ruspetro FY rev 55.1M
  • Unite Group places 9.99% of shares to fund acquisitions

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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