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Morning Report - 15 April 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Weir Group PLC 1880 91.0 5.1 1.6
AstraZeneca PLC 4800 81.5 1.7 5.4
Rio Tinto PLC 2892.5 78.5 2.8 -3.6
Randgold Resources Ltd 4938 73.0 1.5 12.7
Next PLC 7110 70.0 1.0 4.3
BHP Billiton PLC 1459.5 43.5 3.1 5.1
Anglo American PLC 1039.5 40.8 4.1 -13.4
Aggreko PLC 1600 26.0 1.7 6.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Shire PLC 5535 -145.0 -2.6 22.1
Carnival PLC 3296 -58.0 -1.7 12.9
Whitbread PLC 5345 -45.0 -0.8 12.1
London Stock Exchange Group PLC 2530 -43.0 -1.7 13.9
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 1210 -27.0 -2.2 19.6
SABMiller PLC 3610.5 -25.0 -0.7 7.4
Standard Chartered PLC 1083.5 -22.5 -2.0 12.5
easyJet PLC 1871 -21.0 -1.1 12.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 7,075.3 11.0 0.16 7.8
UK 17,858.8 29.0 0.16 11.0
FR CAC 40 5,218.1 -36.1 -0.69 22.1
DE DAX 30 12,227.6 -111.1 -0.90 24.7
US DJ Industrial Average 30 18,036.7 59.7 0.33 1.2
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,977.3 -11.0 -0.22 5.1
US S&P 500 2,095.8 3.4 0.16 1.8
JP Nikkei 225 19,856.8 -51.9 -0.26 13.8
HK Hang Seng Index 48 27,578.9 17.4 0.06 16.8
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,905.0 -41.6 -0.70 9.1
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 53.64 0.19 0.35 -0.5
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 60.27 1.94 3.32 1.3
Gold ($/oz) 1192.15 -1.55 -0.13 0.9
Silver ($/oz) 16.15 -0.01 -0.08 3.0
Platinum ($/oz) 1153.35 -0.05 0 -4.6
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.475 -0.13 -5.2
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.064 -0.09 -12.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.387 -0.03 7.8
UK 100 called to open flat at 7066

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 1000                       Eurozone             Trade Balance
  • 1415                       USA                       Industrial & Manufacturing Production

 

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open flat at 7066, settling into the upper half of a narrow sideways channel with support at 7040 and resistance at all-time highs around 7100. Updated watch levels: Bullish 7100, bearish 7025.

The flat open comes as the wind seems to have left the UK Index ’s sails following a night of weak data from China, whose economy grew at the slowest pace since the 2008 financial crisis (though in line with consensus). Stocks with exposure to raw materials likely to stifle further progress for the UK benchmark index for the time being as investor confidence takes note of a downturn in demand from the world’s #2 economy.

In the Eurozone, talks drag on as Greece’s cash begins to dwindle with officials suggesting a lack of progress in negotiations that is likely to disappoint those hoping for a deal by the upcoming April 24th Eurogroup summit. Tsipras & Co. have been asked yet again to submit a coherent  list of reforms by April 20th . The IMF are reported to be preparing for all scenarios, including a Greek exit from the Eurozone.

US bourses closed mixed on Tuesday with ongoing US Fed chatter weighing on markets. Minneapolis Fed president Kocherlakota is concerned about low inflation, pointing out that those countries battling low inflation are finding it very difficult to deal with and that a US rate hike, which could upset things, should not take place this year. Inflation is still way below the target 2%  with a high probability it will remain there for the foreseeable future, and so “raising the Fed funds rate in 2015 would be inappropriate, because such an action would serve to further delay the return of inflation to target.”

Asian markets are also mixed after the disappointing Chinese data, however the Shanghai Composite added 0.3% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 2% overnight as investors ramped up their expectations of Chinese economic stimulus measures to battle the slowdown. Premier Li Keqiang’s government has already relaxed home-purchasing rules, cut interest rates twice and reduced the reserves banks must set aside in recent months in attempts to bolster growth.

In focus today will be Industrial and Manufacturing Production from the US with the former expected to contract and the latter forecast to grow. So mixed expectations then in the world’s biggest economy that will no doubt be watched closely by an increasingly undecided Federal reserve.

Brent ($58) and US Light Crude ($54) are failing to make new highs while supported by 1-month rising lows, a potentially bullish arrangement as we move into the second half of April. Support is coming in the form of a forecast drop in US shale output alongside growing tensions in the Middle East while wary traders awaiting the US stockpiles report and weak Chinese macro data are hindering further price rises.

Gold ($1194) is still trading around support at its current price having tested $1190 yesterday and recovered overnight as the US Dollar weakened on soft data and Eurozone headwinds bolstered safe haven demand for the yellow metal.

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Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • China                     GDP                                       In line, growth slowest since Fin. Crisis.
  • Japan                    Industrial Production      Improved slightly

 

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Pets at Home closes £260M financing deal
  • Oxford Instruments sees FY adjusted pretax profit not less than £35M
  • Dialight says board's expectations for FY remain unchanged
  • Fresnillo Q1 output rises, on track for 2015 expectations
  • Speedy Hire sees FY adj. pre-tax profit slightly ahead of consensus
  • Hunting's first – quarter operating profit falls on oil sector slump
  • Norway's oil fund backs more focus on climate change at BP, Shell
  • Bunzl posts 6% rise in Q1 group revenue, helped by acquisitions
  • Burberry says H1 sales rise on U.S., Europe
  • British fund manager Jupiter's AUM rises to £34.8B
  • Liberty Holdings CEO steps down to join Old Mutual
  • Kirkland Lake Gold to cancel admission of its ordinary shares for trading on AIM

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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