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Morning Report - 30 March 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Carnival PLC 3241 217.0 7.2 11.0
InterContinental Hotels Group PLC 2640 71.0 2.8 1.7
Shire PLC 5425 115.0 2.2 19.7
SABMiller PLC 3613 51.0 1.4 7.5
Compass Group PLC 1174 14.0 1.2 6.6
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA 594 7.0 1.2 22.2
easyJet PLC 1858 21.0 1.1 11.2
London Stock Exchange Group PLC 2413 18.0 0.8 8.6
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Weir Group PLC 1714 -63.0 -3.6 -7.4
Glencore PLC 288.15 -9.1 -3.1 -3.6
Sports Direct International PLC 621.5 -19.5 -3.0 -12.6
Anglo American PLC 1044 -32.5 -3.0 -13.0
Randgold Resources Ltd 4756 -146.0 -3.0 8.6
Ashtead Group PLC 1070 -28.0 -2.6 -7.1
Rio Tinto PLC 2809.5 -67.5 -2.4 -6.4
Barclays PLC 244.25 -5.8 -2.3 0.3
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,855.0 -40.3 -0.58 4.4
UK 17,162.6 -98.0 -0.57 6.7
FR CAC 40 5,034.1 27.7 0.55 17.8
DE DAX 30 11,868.3 24.6 0.21 21.0
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,712.7 34.5 0.19 -0.6
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,891.2 27.9 0.57 3.3
US S&P 500 2,061.0 4.9 0.24 0.1
JP Nikkei 225 19,396.1 110.4 0.57 11.1
HK Hang Seng Index 48 24,905.0 418.8 1.71 5.5
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,846.1 -73.8 -1.25 8.0
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 48.14 -0.30 -0.61 -9.8
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 56.09 -1.69 -2.92 0.4
Gold ($/oz) 1193.25 -5.05 -0.42 1.3
Silver ($/oz) 16.88 -0.10 -0.56 8.2
Platinum ($/oz) 1132.10 -5.40 -0.47 -5.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.485 -0.16 -4.5
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.086 -0.32 -9.9
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.367 0.16 6.0
UK 100 called to open +35pts at 6885

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09:30             UK                          Mortgage approvals
  • 10:00             Eurozone             Consumer Confidence, Business Climate Indicator
  • 13:00             Germany             CPI
  • 13:30             USA                       Personal Income & Spending
  • 14:45             Eurozone             Bond Purchases (Vis. QE)
  • 15:00             USA Pending      Home Sales
  • 15:30             USA                       Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +35pts at 6875, continuing the downtrend from 24 march. Potential for a breach of support around 6840 indicated by a second bearish flag pattern in formation. Watch Levels: Bullish 6935, Bearish 6800.

The positive open comes as a minor correction to a 1-week downtrend as both the Greece/Eurogroup situation and US monetary policy loom large in the news. Greece, having had its credit rating downgraded to CCC by Fitch, presented a new list of reforms to secure further bailout funding to avoid an April cash crunch. Nonetheless, confidence is low that any sort of solid agreement will be made.

US stocks closed higher on Friday as the Fed gossip continued with Yellen saying an interest rate hike may well be warranted later this year but stressing that any rise would be gradual. She also suggested that further signs of weakness from low inflation could impact a decision on an increase. Data wise, US personal consumption, GDP price index and core PCE data all came in as expected at 4.4%, 0.1% and 1.1% respectively while QoQ GDP was unchanged at 2.2%, missed the 2.4% consensus.

Asian Bourses started positive following Friday’s positive Wall Street close. Chinese markets outperformed (as usual) with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp making good gains with the latter making its highest level since May 2008 after the PBoC governor Zhou hinted at further economic stimulus measures over the weekend. On the data front, Japan's February preliminary Industrial Production came in much lower than expected at -3.4% MoM versus a downward revised 3.7% MoM in January. In Australia the RBA are considering not whether to lower rates but by how much they should lower them.

In focus today we have UK Consumer Credit and Mortgage Approvals looking for a rise – interesting given the slowdown in house prices reported last week. In the Eurozone we’ll be getting Consumer Confidence and the Business Climate Indicator, with German CPI and E/Zone bond purchases this afternoon. In the US we have Personal Income and Spending.

US Light Crude ($48) and Brent ($56) are struggling to maintain their respective, synchronised uptrends, as global supply glut worries persist with little being done by Middle East uncertainty to support prices.

Gold ($1193) slowly trudging upwards, helped by worries over Iran and the Yemen situation – both of which adding to global uncertainty and fuelling demand for the safe-haven metal as the US dollar basket, not as strong as it has been, also increases desirability from non-US buyers.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Japan                      Industrial Production                      Missed, Deteriorated

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Babcock expects full year results to meet its expectations
  • Volga Gas says 2014 profit before tax up 79% to $16.3M
  • Serco sells Great Southern Rail in Australia
  • Randgold Sees Growth Opportunities In Stressed Mining Sector
  • Monitise non – exec Houghton steps down
  • Vodafone says Vodafone Wallet service to be enabled in European markets from Q2
  • RollsRoyce says Air China has selected Trent 1000 engines
  • Compass sees first half revenue growth of 5.5%
  • Diploma sees H1 revenues to be about 9% ahead

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research

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