Today's Main Events
- 09:00 Germany IFO Surveys
- 10:30 USA Fed’s Evans speaks
- 12:30 USA Durable Goods Orders
- 16:00 Germany Chancellor Merkel speaks
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
This report is not a personal recommendation and does not take into account your personal circumstances or appetite for risk.
| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| International Consolidated Airlines Group SA | 613.5 | 21.5 | 3.6 | 26.2 |
| Persimmon PLC | 1716 | 41.0 | 2.5 | 8.8 |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG | 1221 | 27.0 | 2.3 | -0.6 |
| Barratt Developments PLC | 542 | 8.5 | 1.6 | 15.1 |
| St James’s Place PLC | 990 | 15.5 | 1.6 | 21.6 |
| Old Mutual PLC | 234.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 23.3 |
| Dixons Carphone PLC | 431.2 | 6.4 | 1.5 | -6.8 |
| Reed Elsevier PLC | 1187 | 17.0 | 1.5 | 7.9 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Associated British Foods PLC | 2925 | -86.0 | -2.9 | -7.2 |
| Wolseley PLC | 4098 | -112.0 | -2.7 | 11.2 |
| Rio Tinto PLC | 2884 | -58.5 | -2.0 | -3.9 |
| Glencore PLC | 301.35 | -5.8 | -1.9 | 0.9 |
| Standard Chartered PLC | 1120 | -21.0 | -1.8 | 16.3 |
| Anglo American PLC | 1093.5 | -20.5 | -1.8 | -8.9 |
| Intertek Group PLC | 2536 | -43.0 | -1.7 | 8.7 |
| Kingfisher PLC | 367.2 | -5.5 | -1.5 | 7.8 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 7,019.7 | -18.0 | -0.26 | 6.9 |
| UK | 17,579.2 | 28.0 | 0.16 | 9.3 |
| FR CAC 40 | 5,088.3 | 33.8 | 0.67 | 19.1 |
| DE DAX 30 | 12,005.7 | 109.9 | 0.92 | 22.4 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 18,011.0 | -104.9 | -0.58 | 1.1 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 4,994.7 | -16.2 | -0.32 | 5.5 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,091.5 | -12.9 | -0.61 | 1.6 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 19,746.2 | 32.8 | 0.17 | 13.2 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 24,536.4 | 136.8 | 0.56 | 3.9 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,973.3 | 4.2 | 0.07 | 10.4 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 47.39 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -11.8 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 55.10 | -0.19 | -0.33 | -4.0 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1189.35 | -1.95 | -0.16 | 0.7 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 16.89 | -0.02 | -0.13 | 7.8 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1137.75 | -0.95 | -0.08 | -5.8 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.487 | – | 0.21 | -4.8 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.093 | – | 0.21 | -9.9 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.360 | – | 0.00 | 5.7 |
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 called to open -5pts at 7015, back from another all-time high of 7065 yesterday but still holding up above the key 7000 mark which will be eyed for whether it will serve as a platform for both consolidation of recent 5.4% gains as well further upside now that the index has finally managed to test clear water. Watch levels: Bullish 7075, Bearish 6980.
The tepid opening call comes as Asian equities drifted overnight after US markets came under pressure from economic data (housing, inflation, PMI) bolstering prospects of higher US interest rates and uncertainty over the strong USD impact on exports. Also weighing is continued apprehension about a slowing China and an FT report suggesting the ECB wanting to prohibit Greek lenders from buying more short-term government debt, in effect removing a key funding source for Athens and adding to fears of a cash crunch and default.
Note however, M&A news boosting sentiment with Hutchison Whampoa striking a £10.25bn deal for Telefonica’s UK mobile network O2 and suggestions that Brazil’s 3G Capital is in advanced talks to acquire Kraft for $40bn hoping to merge it with Heinz.
US stocks pulled back on Tuesday to close lower, partly due to renewed concerns about interest rates – upbeat housing data, consumer price inflation up for the first time in 4 months and positive manufacturing PMI showing growth and supporting US Fed Hawks. The US Dollar Basket is back down below 9800 on renewed Fed patience, but remains strong on yesterday's data.
Asian markets have been mixed overnight, as usual following strong cues from the world’s #1 economy (the US). In China the PBoC said it will be prudent with monetary policy which will have done little to avail the China Slowdown fears. This added to the downwards pressure from yesterday’s disappointing manufacturing PMI to push the Shanghai Composite down. In Japan, BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata said it was hard to achieve 2% inflation within the 2-year deadline set by the central bank, but added that deflation will soon turn to inflation and the broader uptrend in prices will benefit the transition.
Australia’s ASX outperformed its peers in Asia, trading flat around its highest level in 7 years helped by mining stocks benefiting from a rebound in iron ore prices, and this despite key trading partner China’s economy seemingly wallowing in the doldrums of late.
In focus today will be the German business surveys all looking for upbeat prognoses, with US durable goods orders (not including highly volatile transport sector orders) looking for an improvement to back up yesterday’s positive data with indications that businesses are, on the whole, buying more things. EIA weekly oil stocks round off the bill on a fairly quiet day data-wise.
US Light crude ($47.1) and Brent ($54.8) both back from 10-day highs despite a weaker USD as investors begin to look towards this week’s EIA US stockpile data which is expected to show another rise, and even more than yesterday’s API reading of +4.8m barrels.
Inventory data remains key in gauging global oversupply as OPEC refuses to cut production to defend market share and the US tracks back on expensive operations in light of the oil price decline. Both benchmarks in uptrends from 18 Mar, although the latter already testing rising support after poor China manufacturing, Saudi/OPEC stubbornness and uncertainty on supply from Iran amid nuclear talks.
Gold ($1189) managed a brief test of $1195 thanks to the weaker USD and jitters related to Greece and China and the tragic air accident in France but failed to maintain its recent winning run as investors continue to weigh up the likelihood and timing of higher US interest rates in light of incoming macro data. As expected late Feb lows served as some resistance. Now watch for whether yesterday’s low of $1185 act as support.
For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research