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Morning Report - 20 March 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Fresnillo PLC 679 35.0 5.4 -11.4
Randgold Resources Ltd 4826 151.0 3.2 10.2
Marks & Spencer Group PLC 531.5 16.0 3.1 11.0
Tullow Oil PLC 309.6 6.8 2.3 -25.2
Antofagasta PLC 695 13.5 2.0 -7.6
Aviva PLC 566 10.5 1.9 16.8
BHP Billiton PLC 1485.5 27.5 1.9 7.0
Kingfisher PLC 374.4 6.9 1.9 10.0
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Next PLC 7315 -305.0 -4.0 7.3
British American Tobacco PLC 3668 -128.0 -3.4 4.8
TUI AG 1181 -27.0 -2.2 10.4
Anglo American PLC 1046 -23.5 -2.2 -12.9
Meggitt PLC 577.5 -10.0 -1.7 11.3
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 3155 -46.0 -1.4 11.3
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 1189 -17.0 -1.4 17.5
Admiral Group PLC 1518 -19.0 -1.2 14.8
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,962.3 17.1 0.25 6.0
UK 17,438.2 74.5 0.43 8.4
FR CAC 40 5,037.2 3.8 0.07 17.9
DE DAX 30 11,899.4 -23.4 -0.20 21.4
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,959.0 -117.2 -0.65 0.8
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,992.4 9.6 0.19 5.4
US S&P 500 2,089.3 -10.2 -0.49 1.5
JP Nikkei 225 19,560.2 83.7 0.43 12.1
HK Hang Seng Index 48 24,412.7 -56.2 -0.23 3.4
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,975.5 24.7 0.41 10.4
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 45.42 -0.18 -0.39 -15.1
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 54.32 -0.04 -0.07 -5.6
Gold ($/oz) 1170.55 -0.65 -0.06 -1.0
Silver ($/oz) 16.12 -0.02 -0.12 2.9
Platinum ($/oz) 1121.85 -1.55 -0.14 -7.1
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.477 0.03 -5.3
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.069 0.23 -11.8
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.381 -0.21 7.5
UK 100 called to open +10pts at 6976

UK 100 (UKX): 1-month chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 09:30                             UK                          Public Finances
  • 12:30                             Canada                 CPI
  • 17:00                             USA                       Baker Hughes Rig Count

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +10pts at 6976, as futures trading sends the index back up this morning towards all-time highs. Potential for a test of 7000 before the weekend perhaps? Resistance-turned-support possible around 6980. Bulls looking for a final surge past 7000 while bears will look to another sell off before the weekend. Watch levels: Bullish 7000, Bearish 6950

The positive open comes as European equity markets finished Thursday mixed. Peripheral markets outperformed their core contemporaries amidst fresh concerns over Greece. Tsipras has again reiterated his intent to honour Greece’s commitment to its bailout terms and is due to present a fresh list of reforms shortly to secure further assistance from the Eurogroup. The UK Index benefitted from the BoE’s chief economist Haldane who suggested indifference regarding a UK interest rate rise. He indicated the MPC has a full toolbox at the ready to tackle low inflation - including QE and lower rates if needed.

US markets closed mostly lower with profit taking contributing to some weakness on Wall Street following yesterday's post FOMC gains. The Dow is in a shallow upwards channel, buoyed by Chicago Fed dove Evans who said that a delayed liftoff for rates would be better for the economy. With Yellen pointing out the difficulty in being certain in uncertain times, Evans added the Fed should make monetary policy more accommodative when there is increased uncertainty. Data-wise, US initial jobless claims rose to 291k and the March Philadelphia Fed missed the 7.0 forecast, coming in at 5.0.

Asian markets are mixed having lost steam after the US Fed news which added little to the pot after an initial flurry of activity. Most eyes were on Japan as The BoJ meeting minutes showed members once again agreeing that the economy would likely continue its moderate recovery. In Australia, Governor Stevens said that the RBA will continue to assist in the economy’s recovery with lower rates if needed. Stevens noted the transition from the mining boom hasn’t gone as smoothly as hoped, but the weakening AUD is helping growth.

In focus today we have UK public finances, Canadian CPI data and the US Baker Hughes Rig Count.

US Light crude ($43.7) and Brent ($54.1) are following similar paths on the charts this morning having bounced yesterday. Both are back from this week’s highs mounted on the back of the brief plunge in the US Dollar Basket. Barclays analysts warned that China’s demand for commodities including oil will remain turbulent for the next five years, due to its transition to a more consumer-driven economy, while talks with Iran threaten to flood the market with oil if an amiable solution is found. Baker Hughes Rig Count due later today.

Gold ($1171) still holding firm, back from Thursday’s gains following the FOMC minutes. Range bound trading likely to continue into the weekend although USD volatility will affect prices. Potential for a black swan before close today? Note Thursday saw the end of the London gold fix, which first took place in September 1919.

For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – it’s all part of the service.

Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • China                      MNI Business Indicator                 Deteriorated

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Firstgroup's contract to run TransPennine rail link extended
  • Offer for TSB Banking Group plc
  • TSB recommends Sabadell offer to shareholders
  • Alliance Trust says Elliott's proposal "completely unacceptable"
  • Gulfsands Petroleum says requirement for funding is immediate
  • Vedanta Resources sees reduced FY15 capex of $1 bln
  • Tullow gets $450 mln lending boost from creditors
  • Amphion Innovations says partner Motif Bio to seek AIM listing
  • JKX Oil & Gas full-year revenue falls 19 pct
  • Tesco regains ownership of 21 UK superstores

 


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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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