Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 called to open +8pts at 6911, still hanging on to the February up-trend after yesterday’s retreat to March lows. A possible bounce off rising support at the 20-day moving average may help the index back into its bullish ascending triangle pattern with resistance around 6960. Watch levels: Bullish 6980, Bearish 6860.
The positive open comes after the IFS report found that falls in inflation and unemployment, together with modest wage rises, have raised consumer spending power in the UK, with household incomes back to near pre- banking crisis levels. In other data, Britain’s services sector eased back in February but firms’ hiring of staff took off to post the second-highest rate of employment on record. All of the above combined with increased new orders were seen as solid signs that that the UK economy has got off to a strong start in 2015.
US markets finished lower last night, although off their worst levels, as US Fed’s George said she would prefer to raise rates sooner, such as the middle of the year, but at a gradual pace. She also warned that waiting too long may require rates to rise rapidly in the future. Elsewhere, economic activity continued to expand across most regions and sectors from early Jan through mid-Feb, consumer spending rose and employment gains were evident, making a strong case for a US rate rise this year.
Asian equity markets are trading mixed following a weak lead from Wall Street as China confirmed its weakest growth target in more than 15 years citing greater economic headwinds this year than in 2014. In Australia, Deputy RBA Governor Lowe confirmed further QE may be implemented to assist economic recovery as upward pressure on an already strong AUD had complicated the recovery somewhat.
In focus in Europe today will be the UK BoE rate announcement with no change to UK interest rates forecast. In the US we have Jobless Claims, Non-Farm Productivity expected to improve and Factory Orders looking for an increase in Jan. Seeing out the day will be the EIA Natural Gas Storage Change up to 27 Feb which is forecast to fall. Check the macro-calendar throughout the day for updates.
US Light crude ($51) and Brent ($60) both made gains overnight after Saudi Arabia's latest comments boosted demand while US crude supplies jumped by more than 10mln barrels. The comments came after the world's largest petroleum exporter hiked prices to customers in Asia, the US and northwest Europe. Analysts say that this is a sign that prices have bottomed out as the country is confident in raising prices without losing market share. Meanwhile, the country's oil minister also said that it would not cut its oil production and indicated there would be no emergency OPEC meeting.
Gold still sitting in its March downwards channel with the dollar basket trading at highs and safe haven demand muted after strong economic data from the UK and US. The yellow metal remains essentially range bound over the past two days dues to a lack of strong drivers. Analysts’ eyes are on tomorrow’s US Non-Farm Payrolls to provide some impetus one way or the other.
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Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Aussie Retail Sales Hit, Improved
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- Schroders pretax profits jump 16 pct to 517 mln stg
- Spirax-Sarco Engineering FY sales 678.3 mln stg
- Northern Petroleum signs farmout pact with Shell for Cascina Alberto permit in Italy
- Virgin Money's profit more than doubles as mortgages rise
- Inmarsat sees 2015 trading environment similar to 2014
- Aviva 2014 operating profit rises 6 pct
- Friends Life posts 38 pct rise in pretax profits
- London Stock Exchange says FY adj. pretax profit rises 19 pct
- Nichols says FY sales rise 3.5 pct
- Croda International appoints Anita Frew as chairman designate
- London Stock Exchange full – year profit driven by most IPOs since 2007
- Admiral Group posts 4 percent dip in FY pretax profits
- Empresaria FY rev 187.9 mln stg
- Telford Homes signs new 180 mln stg loan facility
- Cobham says on track to return to growth in 2015
- Quindell says disposes minority investment in Nationwide Accident Repair Services
- 32Red FY pretax profit rose 49 pct