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Morning Report - 6 February 2015

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Tullow Oil PLC 418.1 22.2 5.6 1.0
BT Group PLC 442 19.0 4.5 10.1
Hargreaves Lansdown PLC 1000 34.0 3.5 -1.2
Aggreko PLC 1638 42.0 2.6 8.9
Smith & Nephew PLC 1198 30.0 2.6 0.8
BG Group PLC 954.8 22.8 2.5 10.4
Weir Group PLC 1852 42.0 2.3 0.1
Intertek Group PLC 2452 54.0 2.3 5.1
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
AstraZeneca PLC 4529 -159.0 -3.4 -0.6
easyJet PLC 1726 -52.0 -2.9 3.3
Vodafone Group PLC 230.9 -5.6 -2.4 3.7
BAE Systems PLC 516.5 -11.0 -2.1 9.4
ITV PLC 226 -4.6 -2.0 5.0
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC 3021 -59.0 -1.9 6.5
CRH PLC 1747 -32.0 -1.8 13.2
Wolseley PLC 3820 -68.0 -1.8 3.6
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,865.9 5.9 0.09 4.6
UK 16,695.0 123.4 0.74 3.8
FR CAC 40 4,703.3 7.0 0.15 10.1
DE DAX 30 10,905.4 -5.9 -0.05 11.2
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,885.0 211.9 1.20 0.3
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,765.1 48.4 1.03 0.6
US S&P 500 2,062.5 21.0 1.03 0.2
JP Nikkei 225 17,648.5 143.9 0.82 1.1
HK Hang Seng Index 48 24,697.2 -68.3 -0.28 4.6
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,820.2 9.2 0.16 7.6
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 51.97 0.68 1.32 -4.5
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 57.85 0.78 1.37 -0.9
Gold ($/oz) 1268.40 2.70 0.21 7.0
Silver ($/oz) 17.30 0.05 0.3 9.9
Platinum ($/oz) 1256.35 5.55 0.44 3.5
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.533 0.09 -1.7
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.147 -0.03 -5.2
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.337 0.11 3.7
UK 100 called to open -15pts at 6850

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 0930      UK                          Trade Balance.
  • 12:30     US                          Challenger Job Cuts.
  • 13:30     US                          Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

 

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 Index called to open -15pts at 6850, with the bounce from 6800 struggling to improve on late Wednesday highs of 6860, keeping the index within a 6720-6900 2-week sideways channel. Whether this is a pause before a resumption of the uptrend or a correction remains to be seen, with the bulls still eyeing 6950 all-time highs and bears looking for a revisit South. Updated Watch levels: Bullish 6910, Bearish 6790.

The negative opening call stems from continued uncertainty surrounding Greece’s sovereign debt problems following a tougher ECB stance and the newly elected government’s difficulty in lobbying Eurozone peers this week on debt write-downs/restructuring.

Note more banks cutting their US GDP tracking estimates in the wake of mixed data prints, some hesitation to buy into risk ahead of the US Jobs report this afternoon (clues about the strength of the world’s #1 economy? Fed still ‘patient’)? and weaker than expected German Industrial Production this morning.

US bourses closed higher showing little nervousness before the Jobs report despite mixed data, buoyed by healthcare M&A and the rebound in Oil still having legs. All eyes on the Baker Hughes Rig Count again this evening after it plunged by a record amount last week (down 24% from October), interpreted as having potential to tighten US oil production/supply and boost the price of the black stuff.

Major Asian bourses muted despite the positive close on Wall Street, oil price gains and Twitter Q4 results beating expectations but unperturbed by Greek concerns or the US Jobs report update. Japan’s Nikkei supported by a still strong dollar and thus weak JPY thanks to divergent Fed/BoJ policy.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng hindered by Chinese stocks heading for their longest weekly losing streak since May on fears about deepening economic slowdown, forced yuan appreciation and despite the recent stimulus move. Note Australia’s ASX just positive, but held back by the RBA cutting 2015 GDP/inflation forecasts to underscore Tuesday’s rate cut, however, the index is heading for a record run of daily gains.

In focus today will be the US Jobs report with expectations for a further slowing in monthly job adds, but revisions still likely to garner much attention along with wages growth for potential hints as to a pick-up in inflation and timing of a US rate rise. With oil so topical and after such volatility this week note the US Baker Hughes Rig count after the European close could see oil react and dictate the direction of oil related stocks come Monday morning.

Gold ($1266) remains choppy as investors await US non-farm payrolls data and evidence/clues on US rate rise timing and react to mounting pressure on Greece to reach an agreement with the ECB, although expectations that a solution will ultimately be reached have hampered safe haven demand for the time being.

It has been a volatile week for oil with prices back up near their highs, despite US inventories remaining at record levels and all eyes on whether we see another drop in the US Baker Hughes Rig Count this evening. Having broken away from their lows, much talk about whether we see a $60 handle on Brent and $55 on US Light Crude, helped by Libyan violence disrupting supply and China stimulus boosting demand.

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Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Germany             Industrial Production                  Miss, Deteriorated

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Anglo Pacific Group raises 39.5 mln stg via placing
  • Shaftesbury says remains confident of long-term prospects
  • Tate & Lyle warns annual profit will be below guided range
  • GlaxoSmithKline reports positive result from Phase III COMBI-d study
  • DFS Furniture says plans to file for IPO
  • Avocet Mining says 2014 gold production lower than guidance
  • Poundland to buy 99p stores for 55 mln stg
  • Gulf Keystone suspends exports from Iraqi Kurdistan
  • Capita to provide services for Britain's National Health Service

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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