Today's Main Events
- 0930 UK Trade Balance.
- 12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts.
- 13:30 US Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Tullow Oil PLC | 418.1 | 22.2 | 5.6 | 1.0 |
| BT Group PLC | 442 | 19.0 | 4.5 | 10.1 |
| Hargreaves Lansdown PLC | 1000 | 34.0 | 3.5 | -1.2 |
| Aggreko PLC | 1638 | 42.0 | 2.6 | 8.9 |
| Smith & Nephew PLC | 1198 | 30.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| BG Group PLC | 954.8 | 22.8 | 2.5 | 10.4 |
| Weir Group PLC | 1852 | 42.0 | 2.3 | 0.1 |
| Intertek Group PLC | 2452 | 54.0 | 2.3 | 5.1 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| AstraZeneca PLC | 4529 | -159.0 | -3.4 | -0.6 |
| easyJet PLC | 1726 | -52.0 | -2.9 | 3.3 |
| Vodafone Group PLC | 230.9 | -5.6 | -2.4 | 3.7 |
| BAE Systems PLC | 516.5 | -11.0 | -2.1 | 9.4 |
| ITV PLC | 226 | -4.6 | -2.0 | 5.0 |
| Imperial Tobacco Group PLC | 3021 | -59.0 | -1.9 | 6.5 |
| CRH PLC | 1747 | -32.0 | -1.8 | 13.2 |
| Wolseley PLC | 3820 | -68.0 | -1.8 | 3.6 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,865.9 | 5.9 | 0.09 | 4.6 |
| UK | 16,695.0 | 123.4 | 0.74 | 3.8 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,703.3 | 7.0 | 0.15 | 10.1 |
| DE DAX 30 | 10,905.4 | -5.9 | -0.05 | 11.2 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,885.0 | 211.9 | 1.20 | 0.3 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 4,765.1 | 48.4 | 1.03 | 0.6 |
| US S&P 500 | 2,062.5 | 21.0 | 1.03 | 0.2 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 17,648.5 | 143.9 | 0.82 | 1.1 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 24,697.2 | -68.3 | -0.28 | 4.6 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,820.2 | 9.2 | 0.16 | 7.6 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 51.97 | 0.68 | 1.32 | -4.5 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 57.85 | 0.78 | 1.37 | -0.9 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1268.40 | 2.70 | 0.21 | 7.0 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.30 | 0.05 | 0.3 | 9.9 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1256.35 | 5.55 | 0.44 | 3.5 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.533 | – | 0.09 | -1.7 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.147 | – | -0.03 | -5.2 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.337 | – | 0.11 | 3.7 |
UK 100 Index called to open -15pts at 6850, with the bounce from 6800 struggling to improve on late Wednesday highs of 6860, keeping the index within a 6720-6900 2-week sideways channel. Whether this is a pause before a resumption of the uptrend or a correction remains to be seen, with the bulls still eyeing 6950 all-time highs and bears looking for a revisit South. Updated Watch levels: Bullish 6910, Bearish 6790.
The negative opening call stems from continued uncertainty surrounding Greece’s sovereign debt problems following a tougher ECB stance and the newly elected government’s difficulty in lobbying Eurozone peers this week on debt write-downs/restructuring.
Note more banks cutting their US GDP tracking estimates in the wake of mixed data prints, some hesitation to buy into risk ahead of the US Jobs report this afternoon (clues about the strength of the world’s #1 economy? Fed still ‘patient’)? and weaker than expected German Industrial Production this morning.
US bourses closed higher showing little nervousness before the Jobs report despite mixed data, buoyed by healthcare M&A and the rebound in Oil still having legs. All eyes on the Baker Hughes Rig Count again this evening after it plunged by a record amount last week (down 24% from October), interpreted as having potential to tighten US oil production/supply and boost the price of the black stuff.
Major Asian bourses muted despite the positive close on Wall Street, oil price gains and Twitter Q4 results beating expectations but unperturbed by Greek concerns or the US Jobs report update. Japan’s Nikkei supported by a still strong dollar and thus weak JPY thanks to divergent Fed/BoJ policy.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng hindered by Chinese stocks heading for their longest weekly losing streak since May on fears about deepening economic slowdown, forced yuan appreciation and despite the recent stimulus move. Note Australia’s ASX just positive, but held back by the RBA cutting 2015 GDP/inflation forecasts to underscore Tuesday’s rate cut, however, the index is heading for a record run of daily gains.
In focus today will be the US Jobs report with expectations for a further slowing in monthly job adds, but revisions still likely to garner much attention along with wages growth for potential hints as to a pick-up in inflation and timing of a US rate rise. With oil so topical and after such volatility this week note the US Baker Hughes Rig count after the European close could see oil react and dictate the direction of oil related stocks come Monday morning.
Gold ($1266) remains choppy as investors await US non-farm payrolls data and evidence/clues on US rate rise timing and react to mounting pressure on Greece to reach an agreement with the ECB, although expectations that a solution will ultimately be reached have hampered safe haven demand for the time being.
It has been a volatile week for oil with prices back up near their highs, despite US inventories remaining at record levels and all eyes on whether we see another drop in the US Baker Hughes Rig Count this evening. Having broken away from their lows, much talk about whether we see a $60 handle on Brent and $55 on US Light Crude, helped by Libyan violence disrupting supply and China stimulus boosting demand.
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