Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)
UK 100 Index called to open -20pts at 6380 despite a largely positive US close and advances in Asia as bargain hunters stepped in following the steep slides, with weak overnight China inflation data (CPI and PPI) reviving the recent slowdown fears in the world’s #2 economy and Germany’s CPI containing to flat-line adding to deflationary and recessionary concerns in the eurozone.
After all the M&A of late, much fuelled by tax inversion goals, news that AbbVie is reconsidering its merger with Shire after recent US treasury rule changes may take the wind out of some corporate activity. The US equity rebound also lost momentum late in the session as energy names slid with the price of oil, wiping out most of the earlier rally by the major indexes led by industrials, airlines and banks.
Appeasing fears of an early US rate rise, San Francisco Fed President Williams made no change to his mid-2015 forecast despite global growth fears and would consider more QE if the outlook falls. Consensus beating Q3 results from Intel also put some concerned investors at ease, although guidance remains key.
Asia benefiting from poor China data (CPI close to 5yr low) stoking the fires of expectation of further stimulus with Australian miners posting modest gains on demand hopes, Rio Tinto posting a record surge in Q3 iron ore production and hopes that the price of iron ore may have finally bottomed out.
The UK 100 index has been unable to break above our watch level 6400 with macro data flow keeping major indices under pressure. Rising lows from Monday morning, but 6400 been resistance 4 times since last Friday. Our watch levels remain a bullish 6400 and bearish 6300. Germany’s DAX not looking that dissimilar at 8870.
In focus today, UK Jobs report seen improving in September with another drop in Unemployment rate and slight acceleration in wages growth, although still well below inflation. In the afternoon, the US Empire State Manufacturing is forecast to give up quite a bit of ground, adding to recovery concerns, while Retail Sales are seen going negative but PPI and Business Inventories hold their ground. ECB President Draghi speaks and we have results from US financial major Bank of America
In commodities, the safehaven Gold has extended its declines from 4-week highs $1238 after the gains dampened bargain hunting demand amid continued assessment of global monetary policy direction and economic growth concerns which saw the USD gain making commodities more expensive.
Futures prices for Oil have found a modicum of support after posting their biggest one-day drop in two years on signs that production cartel OPEC was unlikely to cut production rates in response to reduced demand forecasts and the stronger USD curbed interest.
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Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- AU Consumer Confidence Edged higher
- AU New Motor Vehicle Sales Rebounded
- CN Inflation Miss, deteriorated
- JP Industrial Production Deteriorated
- DE Consumer Inflation Stays weak
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)
- SDL says remains confident with FY forecast
- Connect group FY underlying pretax profit up 0.2 pct
- BG says oil production starts from Iracema find in Brazil
- Fresnillo Q3 attributable silver production falls marginally
- Balfour Beatty names QinetiQ chief Quinn as new CEO
- Arbuthnot Banking sees FY results marginally ahead of forecast
- Shire says AbbVie should not renege on merger deal
- Weir Group to acquire Trio Engineered Products for $220 mln
- Mears acquires social housing firm Omega for 20 mln stg