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| UK 100 Leaders | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| BHP Billiton PLC | 1797.5 | 56.0 | 3.2 | -3.8 |
| Vodafone Group PLC | 204.25 | 5.6 | 2.8 | -30.8 |
| Rio Tinto PLC | 3182.5 | 74.5 | 2.4 | -6.7 |
| Kingfisher PLC | 318.5 | 7.1 | 2.3 | -17.2 |
| Anglo American PLC | 1461 | 32.5 | 2.3 | 10.7 |
| Fresnillo PLC | 775.5 | 16.5 | 2.2 | 4.0 |
| Marks & Spencer Group PLC | 428.2 | 7.4 | 1.8 | -1.0 |
| Shire PLC | 5185 | 85.0 | 1.7 | 81.8 |
| UK 100 Laggards | Close (p) | Chg (p) | % Chg | % YTD |
| Royal Mail Group PLC | 414.4 | -9.7 | -2.3 | -27.3 |
| Centrica PLC | 308.1 | -6.3 | -2.0 | -11.4 |
| InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | 2374 | -32.0 | -1.3 | 17.9 |
| Aviva PLC | 522.5 | -7.0 | -1.3 | 16.2 |
| Dixons Carphone PLC | 364 | -4.7 | -1.3 | 34.3 |
| G4S PLC | 250 | -3.1 | -1.2 | -4.8 |
| Associated British Foods PLC | 2587 | -32.0 | -1.2 | 5.8 |
| Sainsbury (J) PLC | 260.6 | -3.2 | -1.2 | -28.6 |
| Major World Indices | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| UK UK 100 | 6,706.3 | 30.2 | 0.45 | -0.6 |
| UK | 15,537.6 | 3.9 | 0.03 | -2.5 |
| FR CAC 40 | 4,413.7 | 54.4 | 1.25 | 2.7 |
| DE DAX 30 | 9,662.0 | 66.9 | 0.70 | 1.1 |
| US DJ Industrial Average 30 | 17,210.0 | 154.2 | 0.90 | 3.8 |
| US Nasdaq Composite 100 | 4,555.2 | 46.5 | 1.03 | 9.1 |
| US S&P 500 | 1,998.3 | 15.5 | 0.78 | 8.1 |
| JP Nikkei 225 | 16,374.1 | 206.7 | 1.28 | 0.5 |
| HK Hang Seng Index 48 | 23,847.0 | -74.6 | -0.31 | 2.3 |
| AU S&P/ASX 200 | 5,382.2 | 6.4 | 0.12 | 0.6 |
| Commodities & FX | Mid/Close | Chg | % Chg | % YTD |
| Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) | 92.74 | -0.17 | -0.18 | -5.9 |
| Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) | 96.87 | 0.83 | 0.86 | -13.3 |
| Gold ($/oz) | 1211.05 | -5.25 | -0.43 | 1.0 |
| Silver ($/oz) | 17.43 | -0.23 | -1.32 | -9.1 |
| Platinum ($/oz) | 1316.10 | -17.50 | -1.31 | -4.2 |
| GBP/USD – US$ per £ | 1.631 | – | -0.11 | -1.4 |
| EUR/USD – US$ per € | 1.276 | – | -0.16 | -7.0 |
| GBP/EUR – € per £ | 1.278 | – | 0.06 | 6.0 |
Click graph to enlarge
See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations
UK 100 called to open +5pts at 6710 after yesterday’s rebound from a 250pt 3-day sell-off which was helped by US New Home sales smashing expectations to hit fresh 6yr-highs, helping the USD index rally to new 4yr-highs, while healthcare rallied as panic calmed amid signs that cross-border tax inversion deals may continue despite US government efforts to curtail the practice and US stocks closed higher, snapping 3-day loses.
European markets closed higher on talk of the ECB needing to ease policy further (note EUR/USD at 14-month low) after recent weak macro data, Obama saying the US will lift sanctions on Russia if it opts for peace and diplomacy with Ukraine and a WSJ article suggesting Chinese Leader Xi wanting a change at the top of the PBOC, which some suggest is to make way for a more stimulus friendly replacement.
Little progress since the US close though after geopolitical risk was brought back to the fore with a US official saying that it and its Arab partners are carrying out additional strikes against the Islamic State targets in Syria while UK PM Cameron is recalling parliament to get approval for GB to participate.
US Fed talk remained mixed with the Cleveland Fed president wanting improved projections/guidance for the public but this hawkishly includes removal of ‘rates low for a considerable time’ from upcoming statements. Chicago Fed president offset this somewhat by joining more dovish colleagues in saying he was not comfortable with peers’ calls for rate hikes too soon.
Asian stocks are mixed overnight despite a strong finish on Wall Street with a cautious mood still dominating linked to geopolitical tensions and global growth sentiment, even if US data bolstered optimism. Japan’s Nikkei is the standout performer thanks to the strong USD weakening the JPY, giving a boost to exporters.
The UK 100 index has regained the 6700 level after giving up over 250pts in less than a week. Bulls will be hoping after the bounce from 6650 that 6700 becomes the next support in the index’s recovery to recent highs. Bears will be looking out for any bad news to help generate a fall-back to 6650 opening up the possibility for this to be another bigger bearish flagpole pattern which could complete at August lows.
In focus today we have both ECB resident Draghi and BoE Governor Carney speaking just after markets open and mid-afternoon respectively. The former’s comments will be of particular interest given his quote in a Lithuanian newspaper saying he expects modest Eurozone growth in H2 and that the ECB is ready to use additional unconventional instruments and alter the size/composition of if necessary.
Data-wise, the UK CBI Reported Sales are seen a touch lower in September while US Jobless Claims are expected to have jumped (initial and continuing claims). The notoriously volatile US Durable Goods Orders are expected to show a big drop in August after a big jump in July, although the more stable ex-Transport figure should show a modest rebound..
After disappointing PMI readings in Europe, US PMI Services are seen giving up a little ground from their strong readings of late, while the Kansas City Fed is hoped to improve like its Richmond counterpart did on Tuesday.
In commodities, Gold has taken a knock from the stronger USD sending it to a new 8-month low of $1211 as safehaven demand was sapped by improved US economic data boosting optimism on global growth and reinforcing expectations of higher borrowing costs, even if geopolitical risk remains, and the commodity currency’s gains made it more expensive in relative terms.
In Oil, US Light crude got a boost after US stockpiles declined, helping the price back up to $93/barrel while Brent remains steady around recent lows $96 and in a falling trend, as plentiful supply is keeping prices down despite US airstrikes. Note the prospect of the US lifting sanctions on Russia could weigh.
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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.
Accendo Markets considers opinions and information contained within the research to be valid when published, and gives no warranty as to the investments referred to in this material. The income from the investments referred to may go down as well as up, and investors may realise losses on investments. The past performance of a particular investment is not necessarily a guide to its future performance. Prepared by Michael van Dulken, Head of Research