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Morning Report - 19 September 2014

UK 100 Leaders Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
TUI Travel PLC 384 17.1 4.7 -7.0
Barratt Developments PLC 403.8 11.8 3.0 15.7
Travis Perkins PLC 1697 42.0 2.5 -9.4
Smiths Group PLC 1300 32.0 2.5 -12.2
Wolseley PLC 3362 80.0 2.4 -1.8
Rexam PLC 510 11.3 2.3 -14.6
Whitbread PLC 4264 89.0 2.1 13.7
Persimmon PLC 1380 28.0 2.1 11.4
UK 100 Laggards Close (p) Chg (p) % Chg % YTD
Randgold Resources Ltd 4430 -116.0 -2.6 16.9
Tullow Oil PLC 665.5 -16.0 -2.4 -22.2
Fresnillo PLC 782.5 -15.5 -1.9 5.0
SABMiller PLC 3537 -40.0 -1.1 14.1
Sainsbury (J) PLC 280.9 -2.3 -0.8 -23.0
Burberry Group PLC 1521 -11.0 -0.7 0.3
Admiral Group PLC 1211 -8.0 -0.7 -7.6
United Utilities Group PLC 839 -5.0 -0.6 24.9
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,819.3 38.4 0.57 1.0
UK 15,722.8 146.1 0.94 -1.3
FR CAC 40 4,464.7 33.3 0.75 3.9
DE DAX 30 9,798.1 136.6 1.41 2.6
US DJ Industrial Average 30 17,266.0 109.2 0.64 4.2
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,593.4 31.2 0.68 10.0
US S&P 500 2,011.4 9.8 0.49 8.8
JP Nikkei 225 16,326.2 258.6 1.61 0.2
HK Hang Seng Index 48 24,277.4 108.7 0.45 4.2
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,440.3 24.5 0.45 1.6
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 92.90 -0.23 -0.25 -5.6
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 97.65 -0.40 -0.41 -11.5
Gold ($/oz) 1219.45 -6.05 -0.49 1.7
Silver ($/oz) 18.46 -0.06 -0.34 -4.7
Platinum ($/oz) 1347.90 -1.30 -0.1 -1.9
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.646 0.19 -0.7
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.292 -0.03 -6.0
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.274 0.24 5.4
UK 100 called to open +65pts at 6885

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 15:00     US           Leading Index

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

UK 100 called to open +65pts at 6885 thanks to Scotland voting against independence thus removing the dominant uncertainty which had dogged the index lately regarding what would happen vis-a-vis Scottish companies, stocks with exposure north of the border and of course the country’s use of GBP.

This comes on top of already revived risk appetite linked to loose monetary policy for longer from the Fed, ECB and BoJ after their recent communications/action, with the Fed staying dovish, poor TLTRO take-up possibly meaning the ECB has to do more and Japanese PM Abe saying Abenomics part II on its way.

The combined result was index futures rallying hard with Japan’s Nikkei jumping to its highest level since 2007 after the nation revised down its economic assessment for the first time in 5 months (more stimulus?) and a weaker JPY helped exporters.

Elsewhere in Asia, shares benefited from more liquidity boosting measures in China after the PBOC cut a key interest rate to ease banks’ short-term borrowing costs, which follows am already significant injection into 5 major banks and another signal of an easing bias to kick start the world’s #2 economy.

US stocks closed higher with the DJIA and S&P500 closing at new record highs (DJIA >17300, S&P > 2000), with banks performing strongly on sentiment towards central banks, airlines benefiting from the price of oil continuing to fall back and interest in technology names returning.

Note e-commerce giant Alibaba has priced its US IPO today at $68/share, at the top end of the expected range, in which is one of the world’s largest ever  public offerings, raising $21.8bn and making the company worth $168bn (more than Amazon’s current $150bn).

In focus today will be the fall-out form the Scottish referendum result, not just in the UK but elsewhere in Europe given the appetite for autonomy from regions such as Flanders in Northern Belgium, Padania in Northern Italy and of course Catalonia in Northern Spain. Relief there too? Data wise the calendar is limited to the US Leading Index in the afternoon.

The UK 100 made a decisive breakout from its September downtrend thanks to the Scottish ‘No’ vote, with the relief rally taking it back just shy of the 4 Sept highs (6901 vs 6905). Off its best levels, this could mean resistance around 6900 after a busy weak, however, with a handful of risk events now out of the way there could also be an argument for further advances thanks to those previously on the side-lines looking to get back involved.

In commodities, Gold remains around its 8-month low as the Fed hiked its interest rate forecasts reducing inflation expectations, the stronger USD makes the metal more expensive and the removal of some prominent risk events saps demand for the safehaven.

In Oil, US Light and Brent crude look headed for their first weekly gain this month on speculation that OPEC is considering cutting its production target next year, despite it being a roller-coaster week with US Light now well off its recent lows but Brent remaining their on depressed sentiment towards economic demand.

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Key Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • SCO        Scottish Independence Vote         ‘No’ camp wins: 55% vs 45%
  • JP            All Industry Activity  Index                  Miss, deteriorated
  • JP            Leading Index                                  Deteriorated
  • JP            Coincident Index                             Stable
  • JP            Dept Store Sales                              Weak, but less so
  • DE           Producer Price Inflation                Weak, stable

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Evraz says considering IPO of Evraz North America
  • Rockhopper not paying contingent consideration in MOG deal
  • Domino Printing Sciences says sales in ten months to August rise 4 pct
  • African Minerals sees no material impact of Ebola lockdown in Sierra Leone
  • WPP to acquire Creative and Research Agency from MCS Holding in Mongolia
  • Just Eat to merge its Brazilain business with iFood

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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