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Morning Report - 7 May 2014

UK 100 Leaders Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Persimmon PLC 1378 51.0 3.8 11.2
Sainsbury (J) PLC 333.4 12.1 3.8 -8.7
Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets PLC 202 5.8 3.0 -22.6
Intertek Group PLC 2995 67.0 2.3 -4.9
Associated British Foods PLC 2963 63.0 2.2 21.2
Barratt Developments PLC 382.3 7.3 2.0 9.5
Pearson PLC 1112 18.0 1.7 -17.1
RSA Insurance Group PLC 99.25 1.6 1.6 22.3
UK 100 Laggards Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Barclays PLC 245 -13.5 -5.2 -9.9
Shire PLC 3359 -108.0 -3.1 17.8
AstraZeneca PLC 4677.5 -130.5 -2.7 30.9
Coca-Cola HBC AG 1445 -35.0 -2.4 -18.0
Aberdeen Asset Management PLC 435.4 -10.5 -2.4 -12.9
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (The) PLC 325.2 -6.5 -2.0 -3.8
WPP Group PLC 1263 -23.0 -1.8 -8.5
William Hill PLC 349.7 -5.9 -1.7 -13.0
Major World Indices Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
UK UK 100 6,798.56 -23.86 -0.35 0.73
UK 15,938.70 7.78 0.05 0.02
FR CAC 40 4,428.07 -34.62 -0.78 3.08
DE DAX 30 9,467.53 -61.97 -0.65 -0.89
US DJ Industrial Average 30 16,401.00 -129.55 -0.78 -1.06
US Nasdaq Composite 100 4,080.76 -57.30 -1.38 -2.29
US S&P 500 1,867.72 -16.94 -0.9 1.05
JP Nikkei 225 14,033.45 -424.06 -2.93 -13.86
HK Hang Seng Index 48 21,721.02 -255.31 -1.16 -6.80
AU S&P/ASX 200 5,435.80 -45.58 -0.83 1.56
Commodities & FX Mid/Close Chg % Chg % YTD
Crude Oil, US Light Sweet ($/barrel) 100.085 0.275 0.28 1.1246
Crude Oil, Brent ($/barrel) 107.24 -0.36 -0.33 -2.8618
Gold ($/oz) 1311.9 4.3 0.33 8.5325
Silver ($/oz) 19.6925 0.0875 0.45 0.9266
Platinum ($/oz) 1455.35 1.15 0.08 5.8293
GBP/USD – US$ per £ 1.6979 0.02 2.574
EUR/USD – US$ per € 1.3923 -0.05 1.3386
GBP/EUR – € per £ 1.2195 0.07 1.0866
UK 100 called to open -20pts at 6775

UK 100 (UKX): 1-week chart (Source: IT-Finance)

Click graph to enlarge

Today's Main Events

  • 9:10                        EZ           PMI Retail
  • 13:30                     US           Non-Farm Productivity

See Live Macro Calendar for full data line-up, incl. consensus expectations

Markets Overview: (Source: Bloomberg, FT, Reuters, DJ Newswires)

  UK 100 called to open -20pts at 6775, after US stocks closed lower (S&P 500 at 1-week lows) on a lack of data to maintain the recent drive higher, a weaker earnings report from Twitter (shares -18%) and a worrying escalation in tensions surrounding the Ukraine failing to be shrugged off with the risk of civil war increasing and NATO’s top brass considering a permanent presence by the alliance.

 After a weak of no lack of want for trying, helped by some good US and European data, investors are struggling for reasons to remain bullish with many markets already around highs, plenty of headwinds, the OECD cutting global growth expectations and a disappointing night for macro-economic readings.

 Overnight data included Chinese HSBC PMI Services for April which deteriorated and adds weight to concerns the country will miss its 7.5% GDP growth forecast. Despite the poor manufacturing figure on Monday, the composite number actually improved but remains contractionary and of little comfort. UK Shop Prices also fell more than expected in April.

 Japan also failed to inspire with April’s PMI Services and Composite both dropping sharply from growth to contraction, while Aussie Construction remains under pressure and Retail Sales downunder for March missed expectations. Back in Europe, note March German Factory orders (the engine of the region?) coming in much weaker than consensus, a surprise negative print in fact.

 In Asia-Pacific overnight, indices following the US lead, with red across the board following poor data and tech jitters. Japan’s Nikkei leading the declines after a holiday with a stronger JPY getting in the way following BoJ Minutes showing agreement to continue QE until 2% inflation but no hints of any fresh stimulus on its way.

 In focus today, with an absence of tier 1 data will be Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee which comes hot on the heels of the very strong headline Non-Farm Payrolls prints of last week. Close attention will be paid to any additional commentary on the ‘under-the-hood’ health of the labour market in the world’s #1 economy to allow markets to looking at the end of QE3 as an economic positive rather than a policy negative.

Results this morning from Sainsbury (SBRY) show FY profits +5.3% – its slowest in nearly a decade. Underlying pre-tax profits beat expectations but management expects conditions in food retail to remain challenging for the foreseeable future as customers remain cautious.

Legal & General (LGEN) Q1 net cash +21% and operational cash +6% on demand for its pension products.  Experian (EXPN) FY earnings +8% helped by acquisitions and margin expansion. Imperial Tobacco (IMT) revenues -5% and volumes -7.9% due to tightening regulation and planned inventory reductions in a number of markets.

In Europe, French bank Societe Generale (says net income slid in Q1 although operating income excluding revaluations of own financial liabilities rose. Peer Credit Agricole has delivered a rise in Q1 operating and net profits and Germany’s Commerzbank has swung to a Q1 profit although operating profit fell

On the corporate activity front, note Alibaba filing with the SEC for its much anticipated potentially mega-IPO which could raise up to $20bn and be valued well above $100bn. Pfizer also back on the wires with its charm-offensive towards for the acquisition of AstraZeneca (AZN).

In commodities, Gold has risen toward three-week highs of $1310-1315 as investors weighed tension in Ukraine against signs of an improving U.S. economy. US Light Crude back above $100/bl after an industry report showed crude stockpiles declined in the U.S. although Brent Crude back down around $107 recent lows despite poor economic data and Ukraine supply disruption fears.

 For any help you may require placing trades or in terms of market information, put a call in to our trading floor – all part of the service.

 

Overnight Macro Data: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • UK        BRC Shop Prices Index                        Miss   
  • JP         PMI Services                            Deteriorated, contraction
  • JP         PMI Composite                        Deteriorated, contraction
  • AU       AIG Construction Index           Deteriorated, still contracting
  • AU       Retail Sales                             Miss, growth slower
  • CN       HSBC PMI Services                  Deteriorated, still contracting
  • CN       HSBC PMI Composite              Improved, still contracting
  • DE      Factory Orders                           Big miss
  • EZ        Q1 results: SocGen, Commerzbank, Siemens,
  • UK       Q1 Results: Imperial Tobacco, Sainsbury, Legal & general, G4S

See Live Macro calendar for full details

 

UK Company Headlines: (Source: Reuters/DJ Newswires)

  • Costain Group says strong Q1 performance in line
  • UK grocer Sainsbury's profit growth slows
  • Babcock acquistion of Avincis to complete in May
  • BBA Aviation says revenue for four months to April 30 up 1 pct
  • Emerging markets growth helps boost G4S first-quarter revenue
  • British investment bank Numis lifts first-half pretax profit 85 pct
  • JD Wetherspoon Q3 underlying sales up 6.2 pct
  • Esure says first-qtr gross written premiums flat, outlook unchanged
  • Legal & General buoyed by retirement business
  • Credit checker Experian lifts annual earnings by 8 pct
  • ITV buys stake in U.S. reality producer for $360
  • BAE Systems says outlook for year unchanged
  • John Wood confirms gas turbine JV with Siemens
  • Imperial Tobacco results hurt by inventory reductions
  • Inmarsat makes strong start to year with 7 pct rise in Q1 earnings

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This research is produced by Accendo Markets Limited. Research produced and disseminated by Accendo Markets is classified as non-independent research, and is therefore a marketing communication. This investment research has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote its independence and it is not subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. This research does not constitute a personal recommendation or offer to enter into a transaction or an investment, and is produced and distributed for information purposes only.

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